The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 06 JANUARY 2026
Week 1 (Monday 12 January to Sunday 18 January)
There is a strong signal for low pressure to drive the weather pattern through week 1. Temperatures are expected to recover to near normal for January, although this does not preclude the chance of night-time frosts. Rainfall is signalled to be a little above normal overall and given the time of year, some of this could be wintry at times.
Week 2 (Monday 19 January to Sunday 25 January)
Low pressure dominance continues to be signalled into Week 2, although centred to the west in the Atlantic rather than directly over us. This might point towards the chance of stronger winds occurring at times as well as above average precipitation and near average temperatures overall.
Week 3 (Monday 26 January to Sunday 01 February)
There is greater uncertainty for this period with a weak signal for low pressure to be focussed to the west out in the Atlantic with high pressure hinted to the east and northeast over central Europe and Scandinavia. This setup would suggest a more easterly airflow, if it transpired, which might indicate an increased chance of wintry precipitation. Temperatures are expected to remain near average overall with slightly higher than average precipitation favoured.
Week 4 (Monday 02 February to Sunday 08 February)
There is very low confidence for this period at present with very weak signals. Average climatological conditions are indicated with near average temperature and precipitation.
Seasonal Outlook for January February March 2026 (JFM):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JFM period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the potential for wetter than average conditions overall.
Mean temperatures during JFM are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal, with the signal increasing through the period. However, colder than average periods, where all winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times throughout JFM, especially early on in the period.
There is a signal for above average rainfall overall, especially in the north and west of Ireland. This signal increases through JFM with March indicating the highest likelihood of above average rainfall out of the three months. Generally, there is potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months of JFM.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during JFM. SSTs are trending 0.2 to 0.5 degrees higher than normal off the west and north coasts, with a trend of 0.5 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal off the south and east coasts.