The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 10 FEBRUARY 2026
Week 1 (Monday 16 February to Sunday 22 February)
From 16th to 22nd February, Low pressure will dominate the weather over Ireland. Bands of rain and showers will move eastwards over Ireland with rainfall amounts expected to be above average. It will be quite cold with temperatures around average or slightly below average.
Week 2 (Monday 23 February to Sunday 01 March)
From 23rd February to 2nd March, it looks like atmospheric pressure will build over Ireland. Temperatures are likely to be above normal and rainfall amounts below normal for late February.
Week 3 (Monday 02 March to Sunday 08 March)
From 2nd to 9th March, it looks like high pressure will continue to dominate. So, rainfall amounts should continue below normal and mean temperatures continue above normal.
Week 4 (Monday 09 March to Sunday 15 March)
From 9th to 16th March, there is a slight bias towards high pressure indicated. This suggests that it will be drier than average, though some rain or showers may occur at times. Mean temperatures are expected to be around average.
Seasonal Outlook for February March April 2026 (FMA):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the FMA period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain, but there is a signal for wetter than average spells of weather, particularly in February.
Mean temperatures during FMA are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal, with the signal increasing through the period. However, colder than average periods are likely to still occur, especially during February.
There is a signal for above average rainfall overall. This signal is strongest in February, indicating the potential for a wet end to meteorological winter. A slight signal for drier conditions increases by April. Generally, there is potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months of FMA.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during JFM. SSTs are trending 0.2 to 0.5 degrees higher than normal off the west and north coasts, with a trend of 0.5 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal off the south and east coasts.