The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 07 NOVEMBER 2025
Week 1 (Monday 10 November to Sunday 16 November)
Unsettled conditions are expected to continue during week 1, with Atlantic low pressure systems dominating our weather. There will be frequent spells of rain and showers, with heavy downpours possible. Rainfall amounts will be higher than average across the country as a result, with potential for rainfall warnings during the week, particularly in southern and eastern areas. Mild conditions will persist with temperatures expected to be above average nationwide. It will remain frost-free as a result.
Week 2 (Monday 17 November to Sunday 23 November)
While confidence in week 2 is lower, there is potential that high pressure will move closer to Ireland. While there may still be occasional outbreaks of rain and showers, longer dry spells are possible. Rainfall amounts will be slightly below average as a result. Temperatures will decrease closer to average, with a chance of some frost by night.
Week 3 (Monday 24 November to Sunday 30 November)
Current indications suggest that it will turn slightly more unsettled once again during week 3. Low pressure systems will have a greater impact on our weather, with slightly above average rainfall across Ireland as a result. Mean air temperatures will increase to just above average, decreasing the potential for frost.
Week 4 (Monday 01 December to Sunday 07 December)
Confidence is low in week 4. Current trends indicate a continuation of unsettled conditions with low pressure remaining nearby. However, while there will be spells of rain, dry interludes are possible also. Rainfall amounts will be close to or slightly above average as a result. Temperatures will remain higher than average.
Seasonal Outlook for November, December and January 2025-26 (NDJ)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with potential for both wetter and drier than average spells within the three months.
Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above average generally. However, colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times.
The rainfall forecast is less certain. Generally, there is potential for both wetter and drier than normal conditions through NDJ.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to be above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to normal during December and January.