The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 07/07/2026 12:00
Week 1 – Monday 13th July to Sunday 19th July
In week 1, high pressure is likely to dominate centred to the northwest of Ireland, bringing widely settled and drier than average conditions. It will also be warmer than average across the country, but particularly so in the southwest.
Week 2 – Monday 20th July to Sunday 26th July
While confidence in week 2 is lower, there is a signal for conditions to stay largely settled and warmer than average, particularly in the south and southeast. Rainfall amounts are likely to stay lower than average also.
Week 3 – Monday 27th July to Sunday 02nd August
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3. Currently, there is a signal for more unsettled conditions to dominate with a westerly or northwesterly airflow likely. Rainfall amounts are indicated to be higher than average for this week, as mean air temperatures are likely to continue warmer than average.
Week 4 – Monday 03rd August to Sunday 09th August
In week 4, the confidence in the forecast is low. Current indications show mean air temperatures stay above average. There is a signal for wetter than average conditions across the northern half of Ireland, while close to normal precipitation amounts are predicted for the southern half.
Seasonal Outlook for July August September 2026 (JAS):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JAS period is for above-average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to be below average during the period.
Mean temperatures during JAS are signalled to be above average overall; all three months are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. The likelihood of higher-than-normal temperatures is strongest in September.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, with a weak signal for below-average rainfall overall, especially during July.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to continue slightly above average during JAS, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally, with the highest anomalies expected off southern and eastern coasts.