The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 03/11/2026 12:00
Week 1 – Monday 09th November to Sunday 15th November
The influence of high pressure is expected to wane this week as the high drifts away to the northeast and low pressure begins to influence from the south. Rainfall amounts are expected to be above average towards the south and east and below average towards the north and west. Mean air temperatures are expected to be average or above for the time of year.
Week 2 – Monday 16th November to Sunday 22nd November
The influence of low pressure is expected to continue increasing this week, meaning conditions will become more unsettled. Wetter than average conditions are expected across the country, especially further south. Milder than average conditions for the time of year are also expected.
Week 3 – Monday 23rd November to Sunday 29th November
The trend towards low pressure continues this week, with above average rainfall amounts once again expected. Temperatures are expected to be average or slightly above for the time of year.
Week 4 – Monday 30th November to Sunday 06th December
A similar story this week with low pressure continuing to dominate, bringing above average rainfall amounts together with average or above mean air temperatures.
Seasonal Outlook for November December January (NDJ):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are also likely to trend above average with a strong signal for wet and unsettled conditions at times during NDJ.
Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. However, colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times during NDJ, with the highest likelihood of these colder conditions later in the period.
The rainfall forecast for NDJ signals the potential for above average rainfall throughout the period, especially in the south. The highest likelihood for wetter than average conditions are signalled during November and December, with this trend slowly decreasing through meteorological winter.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts are expected to continue above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal generally. SSTs are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northern coasts.