The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 13/10/2026 14:00
Week 1 – Monday 19th October to Sunday 25th October
This period is expected to have high pressure dominating the weather as there is a likelihood a more blocked regime becoming established. As a result, it is expected to be drier than normal for this time of year. Temperatures are also expected to be slightly higher than normal as well. Some mist and fog are possible too due to the light winds.
Week 2 – Monday 26th October to Sunday 01st November
There is lower confidence for Week 2. There will possibly be a transition from the high pressure dominated weather to more changeable weather during the period. As a result, rainfall amounts are expected to be very slightly higher in most areas, though it is predicted to be drier in northern areas. Temperatures are also expected to be close to or slightly above average. Fog may be a hazard at times.
Week 3 – Monday 02nd November to Sunday 08th November
Current indications for Week 3 suggest slightly above average temperatures for the southern half of the country and average temperatures elsewhere. Rainfall amounts will be above average. This, coupled with lower pressure than average could lead to wet and windy conditions.
Week 4 – Monday 09th November to Sunday 15th November
Week 4 suggests warmer than normal temperatures. Rainfall amounts will be above average and mean sea level pressure will be lower than average. These factors, as well as a lower than average geopotential height northwest of Ireland may lead to some unsettled weather during the period.
Seasonal Outlook for November December January (NDJ):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are also likely to trend above average with a strong signal for wet and unsettled conditions at times during NDJ.
Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. However, colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times during NDJ, with the highest likelihood of these colder conditions later in the period.
The rainfall forecast for NDJ signals the potential for above average rainfall throughout the period, especially in the south. The highest likelihood for wetter than average conditions are signalled during November and December, with this trend slowly decreasing through meteorological winter.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts are expected to continue above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal generally. SSTs are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northern coasts.