The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 09/10/2026 14:00
Week 1 – Monday 12th October to Sunday 18th October
This period is expected to be changeable, with Ireland lying between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. Some strong winds are possible at times, especially for northern coastal areas. Rainfall amounts will average out above normal for the north and northwest, with slightly less than average rainfall amounts over much of Munster and Leinster. Some rainfall warnings may be required, especially in Atlantic coastal areas. Across the country, it is expected to be 1 or 2 degrees above normal, though temperatures will fluctuate. Some fog patches will be a hazard too on occasions.
Week 2 – Monday 19th October to Sunday 25th October
Week 2 gives a signal for high pressure to become the more dominant feature. As a result, it is predicted to be drier than normal. Temperatures are also predicted to be slightly above normal for the time of year. Dense fog patches could be a hazard in the early mornings and overnight.
Week 3 – Monday 26th October to Sunday 01st November
Confidence is lower for week 3. Currently, temperatures are expected to be around average for the time of year. It is also predicted to be very slightly wetter than normal in most areas, with normal rainfall amounts in some southern parts. Fog will be a hazard at times.
Week 4 – Monday 02nd November to Sunday 08th November
Week 4 suggests average temperatures across the country for the time of year. Near normal rainfall amounts in the south and east with slightly drier than average conditions in the north and northwest. At this time of year, however, severe weather cannot be ruled out, and wind or rain warnings may be required. Fog will also be a hazard at times.
Seasonal Outlook for October, November, December (OND):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the OND period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are also likely to trend above average with a strong signal for wet and unsettled conditions at times during OND.
Mean temperatures during OND are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. However, colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times towards the end of OND.
The rainfall forecast for OND signals the potential for above average rainfall throughout the period, especially in the south. The highest likelihood for wetter than average conditions are signalled during November.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts are expected to continue above average during OND, trending 0.2 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal generally.