The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 16/10/2026 14:00
Week 1 – Monday 19th October to Sunday 25th October
High pressure is expected to dominate the weather early next week. However, from midweek and for the latter part of the week, it is looking more unsettled with rain and wind spreading from the west. There’s a slight chance that the blocking regime to the east could be stronger and extend further west, which could lead to those frontal systems that are moving in from the west to slow or even stall, increasing the risk of more impactful wind or rain, or hold the fronts even further west into the Atlantic, possibly alleviating some impacts. Overall, it is expected to be drier than normal for this time of year for much of the country, although more precipitation than average is expected in the south and southeast. Temperatures are also expected to be slightly higher than normal along eastern coasts and average for this time of year elsewhere. Some mist and fog are possible too due to the light winds over the first half of the week. Later in the week, higher winds and rainfall amounts are likely.
Week 2 – Monday 26th October to Sunday 01st November
There is low confidence for Week 2, but it looks like the weather will be more changeable and unsettled during the period as the influence of the high pressure to the east of the country continues to decrease and low pressure starts to take hold. Rainfall amounts are also expected to be higher across the country, suggesting unsettled weather is rather likely with wet and breezy weather possible. Temperatures are also expected to be close to average, except for east and southeast, where they are expected to be slightly above average. Fog may be a hazard at times.
Week 3 – Monday 02nd November to Sunday 08th November
Current indications for Week 3 suggest average temperatures for this time of year. Rainfall amounts will be above average and possibly heavy at times. This, coupled with lower pressure than average, could lead to wet and windy conditions for the period. Forecast confidence, however, remains low.
Week 4 – Monday 09th November to Sunday 15th November
While confidence is low, Week 4 is currently signalling that rainfall amounts will be above average rather than below average. This, coupled with lower than average mean sea level pressure suggests rather unsettled weather for the period. Cooler periods are possible, but overall, temperatures are more likely to be near averages for this time of year.
Seasonal Outlook for November December January (NDJ):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are also likely to trend above average with a strong signal for wet and unsettled conditions at times during NDJ.
Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. However, colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times during NDJ, with the highest likelihood of these colder conditions later in the period.
The rainfall forecast for NDJ signals the potential for above average rainfall throughout the period, especially in the south. The highest likelihood for wetter than average conditions are signalled during November and December, with this trend slowly decreasing through meteorological winter.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts are expected to continue above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal generally. SSTs are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northern coasts.