The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 03/07/2026 12:00
Week 1 – Monday 06th July to Sunday 12th July
There is a good signal that high pressure will be the dominant feature over Ireland, bringing much drier than normal conditions. Temperatures are expected to be above average, though closer to normal along the north and northwest coast.
Week 2 – Monday 13th July to Sunday 19th July
For week 2, high pressure still dominates, but the centre of the high drifts further north allowing lower pressure to approach from the south. It looks slighter drier than normal in the east and midlands, whilst western parts are predicted to be more substantially drier than average. Temperatures are still up to around 3 above normal.
Week 3 – Monday 20th July to Sunday 26th July
Confidence is much lower at this stage. It looks currently like it will be slightly warmer than average in Leinster and Munster and close to normal elsewhere. Rainfall amounts are expected to be close to average amounts in most parts, though Connacht looks slightly drier than average.
Week 4 – Monday 27th July to Sunday 02nd August
For week 4 confidence is low. There is a signal of slightly wetter than normal rainfall in many areas, though near normal rainfall amounts are predicted to affect the north of Ulster. Temperatures are predicted to be slightly above average in most areas and close to normal in northwestern coastal areas.
Seasonal Outlook for July August September 2026 (JAS):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JAS period is for above-average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to be below average during the period.
Mean temperatures during JAS are signalled to be above average overall; all three months are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. The likelihood of higher-than-normal temperatures is strongest in September.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, with a weak signal for below-average rainfall overall, especially during July.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to continue slightly above average during JAS, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally, with the highest anomalies expected off southern and eastern coasts.