The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 23/06/2026 14:00
Week 1 – Monday 29th June to Sunday 05th July
Ireland looks set to lie in a fairly mobile westerly air-flow during the week with bands of rain and showers feeding
in from the Atlantic at times but with long dry spells likely too. Mean air temperatures are likely to trend slightly
above normal, especially in the east. It is expected to be somewhat drier than average, especially in the south of
the country.
Week 2 – Monday 06th July to Sunday 12th July
There is the potential for High Pressure to build back towards Ireland during the week bringing fairly settled
weather. Current forecast guidance suggests mean air temperatures will be slightly above the seasonal norm.
Rainfall totals are predicted to be below the climatological average.
Week 3 – Monday 13th July to Sunday 19th July
Current indications suggest High Pressure over Europe will extend a southerly air-flow over Ireland during the
middle days of July. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be above normal, especially in the east. Rainfall totals
are expected to be around the climatological average.
Week 4 – Monday 20th July to Sunday 26th July
The forecast for Week 4 is very uncertain. There is a slight trend for a southerly air-flow to be the most dominant
flow over Ireland during the week. Temperatures are expected to be above the July average. Rainfall totals are
forecast to be above normal.
Seasonal Outlook for July August September 2026 (JAS):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JAS period is for above-average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to be below average during the period.
Mean temperatures during JAS are signalled to be above average overall; all three months are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. The likelihood of higher-than-normal temperatures is strongest in September.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, with a weak signal for below-average rainfall overall, especially during July.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to continue slightly above average during JAS, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally, with the highest anomalies expected off southern and eastern coasts.