The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 07/08/2026 14:00
Week 1 – Monday 10th August to Sunday 16th August
Week 1 is indicating the presence of high pressure nearby allowing for settled conditions to dominate. There is a
signal for above below average rainfall across the country this week. Mean air temperatures are signalling warmer
than average.
Week 2 – Monday 17th August to Sunday 23rd August
While confidence in week 2 is lower, there is an indication for high pressure to remain the dominant driver of our
weather. Warmer than average temperatures will continue across the country, with the strongest signal covering
the southern half of the country. The rainfall signal is more mixed this week, with above average rainfall expected
in northern parts while southern areas remain drier than normal for week 2.
Week 3 – Monday 24th August to Sunday 30th August
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3. There is little change indicated this week, with
atmospheric pressure continuing to signal slightly above average. As a result, mean air temperatures are
continuing to signal above average in southern and eastern areas but closer to normal elsewhere. The
precipitation anomaly is signalling below average rainfall amounts for all areas in week 3.
Week 4 – Monday 31st August to Sunday 06th September
In week 4 the forecast confidence is low. There is still a signal for high pressure to dominate our weather this
week. However, there is an indication for our weather to turn more changeable with rainfall amounts signalling
above average in eastern parts while remaining drier than average in the west. Mean air temperatures continue to
signal warmer than average in all areas.
Seasonal Outlook for August, September and October (ASO):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the ASO period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to continue below average during the period.
Mean temperatures during ASO are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above average through the three months.
The rainfall forecast across ASO period is less certain, with a weak signal for below-average rainfall overall, especially during August and September.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be above average during ASO, trending 0.2 to 2.0 °C higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northwest coasts.