The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 28/07/2026 13:00
Week 1 – Monday 03rd August to Sunday 09th August
Week 1 is indicating the presence of high pressure nearby but less stationary than recent weeks, allowing for
conditions to turn more unsettled. There is a signal for above average rainfall across the country this week. Mean
air temperatures are signalling warmer than average, with the highest signal near southern and eastern coasts.
Week 2 – Monday 10th August to Sunday 16th August
While confidence in week 2 is lower, there is an indication for high pressure to build from the south and dominate
our weather. Warmer than average temperatures will continue across the country, with the strongest signal
covering the southern half of the country. The rainfall signal is less certain, with average rainfall expected for week 2.
Week 3 – Monday 17th August to Sunday 23rd August
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3. There is little change indicated this week, with
atmospheric pressure continuing to signal slightly above average. As a result, mean air temperatures are
continuing to signal above average. The precipitation anomaly is signalling below average rainfall amounts for all
areas in week 3.
Week 4 – Monday 24th August to Sunday 30th August
In week 4 the forecast confidence is low. There is no signal for either high or low pressure to dominate our weather
this week. There is an indication for our weather to turn more unsettled with rainfall amounts signalling above
average for the time of year. Mean air temperatures continue to signal warmer than average in the south and east
while returning closer to normal in all other areas.
Seasonal Outlook for August, September and October (ASO):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the ASO period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to continue below average during the period.
Mean temperatures during ASO are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above average through the three months.
The rainfall forecast across ASO period is less certain, with a weak signal for below-average rainfall overall, especially during August and September.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be above average during ASO, trending 0.2 to 2.0 °C higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northwest coasts.