The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 20/10/2026 13:00
Week 1 – Monday 26th October to Sunday 01st November
Week 1 is showing a mobile Atlantic weather regime will dominate. It is likely that areas of low pressure
interspersed with ridges of high pressure will bring spells of wet and windy conditions as well as drier and more
settled breaks. Overall, it is likely to be wetter than average for this time of year with a possibility that wind and
rain warnings will be required. Mean air temperatures are also forecast to be close to average for this time of year.
Week 2 – Monday 02nd November to Sunday 08th November
While confidence in week 2 is lower, there is a signal that high pressure to the east or southeast will dominate
bringing slightly more settled conditions. Weather fronts may push in from the west at times, but overall
conditions are forecast to be drier then average for much of the south and east of the country with close to
average conditions elsewhere. Mean air temperatures are indicated to continue close to average for the time of
year.
Week 3 – Monday 09th November to Sunday 15th November
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3 with current indications showing unsettled conditions as
low pressure dominates. As a result, there are likely to be spells of wet and windy conditions with an overall signal
for wetter than average conditions across the country. Mean air temperatures are forecast to trend close to or
slightly above average for the time of year also.
Week 4 – Monday 16th November to Sunday 22nd November
In week 4, the forecast confidence is low, with a tentative signal for unsettled conditions to prevail and low
pressure to dominate. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be above average as a result with mean air temperatures
continuing to trend close to or slightly above average for the time of year.
Seasonal Outlook for November December January (NDJ):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are also likely to trend above average with a strong signal for wet and unsettled conditions at times during NDJ.
Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. However, colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times during NDJ, with the highest likelihood of these colder conditions later in the period.
The rainfall forecast for NDJ signals the potential for above average rainfall throughout the period, especially in the south. The highest likelihood for wetter than average conditions are signalled during November and December, with this trend slowly decreasing through meteorological winter.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts are expected to continue above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal generally. SSTs are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northern coasts.