The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 21/07/2026 12:00
Week 1 – Monday 27th July to Sunday 02nd August
During week 1, high pressure will remain close to Ireland, though some frontal systems will affect the country at
times. Nonetheless, rainfall amounts will be below average for most areas with the exception of the northwest,
where accumulations will be near average or slightly above. It will remain warmer than average across the country
with coolest conditions in the northwest and warmest conditions in the south and southeast.
Week 2 – Monday 03rd August to Sunday 09th August
Current indications suggest that high pressure will remain the dominant feature of our weather during week 2.
While some rain and showers are possible, rainfall amounts will be close to or below normal. It will remain warmer
than normal, with the highest temperatures expected in the southeast.
Week 3 – Monday 10th August to Sunday 16th August
There is increasing uncertainty in the signal for week 3. There is a weak signal for high pressure to the east of
Ireland with potential for Atlantic frontal systems to bring more frequent spells of rain to Ireland. Rainfall amounts
will be near average for many areas, but may be slightly above average in western and northern parts.Temperatures will continue above normal.
Week 4 – Monday 17th August to Sunday 23rd August
Confidence is low in the forecast for week 4 but there is a signal for high pressure close to or over Ireland, bringing
more settled conditions once again. Rainfall amounts will be near normal or slightly below with above average
temperatures across the country.
Seasonal Outlook for August, September and October (ASO):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the ASO period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to continue below average during the period.
Mean temperatures during ASO are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above average through the three months.
The rainfall forecast across ASO period is less certain, with a weak signal for below-average rainfall overall, especially during August and September.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be above average during ASO, trending 0.2 to 2.0 °C higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northwest coasts.