The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 06/11/2026 13:00
Week 1 – Monday 09th November to Sunday 15th November
For Week 1, high pressure will generally be centred to the northwest with low pressure to the south feeding in a
mostly east or southeast airflow over the country. Temperatures will be around normal for most but milder than
average in parts of the south and east. Parts of the south and east will also likely see above average rainfall
amounts while elsewhere it will generally be drier than normal. There are indications that high pressure will move
closer towards the end of the working week bringing in a cooler northerly airflow.
Week 2 – Monday 16th November to Sunday 22nd November
For week 2, high pressure looks set to decline with Atlantic low pressure becoming dominant generating a mostly
southwesterly airflow. This will lead to above normal temperatures and precipitation amounts. Individual and
accumulative rainfall events will need to be monitored for impacts.
Week 3 – Monday 23rd November to Sunday 29th November
Week 3 is signalled to have a continuation of the unsettled conditions with low pressure dominating and above
average precipitation amounts. Parts of the south and southeast will continue to have above normal temperatures
but elsewhere, more average values are expected. As in Week 2, individual and accumulative rainfall events will
need to be monitored for impacts.
Week 4 – Monday 30th November to Sunday 06th December
In Week 4, low pressure is still signalled to dominate our weather bringing above average precipitation amounts
and around average temperatures. Again, individual and accumulative rainfall events will need to be monitored for
impacts.
Seasonal Outlook for November December January (NDJ):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are also likely to trend above average with a strong signal for wet and unsettled conditions at times during NDJ.
Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. However, colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times during NDJ, with the highest likelihood of these colder conditions later in the period.
The rainfall forecast for NDJ signals the potential for above average rainfall throughout the period, especially in the south. The highest likelihood for wetter than average conditions are signalled during November and December, with this trend slowly decreasing through meteorological winter.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts are expected to continue above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal generally. SSTs are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northern coasts.