The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 31/07/2026 14:00
Week 1 – Monday 03rd August to Sunday 09th August
In week 1, a weak signal extends across the country with higher than average temperatures indicated for the
southern half of the country. Precipitation amounts are expected to remain below average for the time of year.
Week 2 – Monday 10th August to Sunday 16th August
Going into week 2, uncertainty starts to increase. The signal for higher pressure only remains over the north of
Ireland with no clear signal indicated for the rest of the country. However, the warmer than average temperature
anomaly now extends countrywide with a weak signal for higher than average rainfall amounts.
Week 3 – Monday 17th August to Sunday 23rd August
There is less certainty in the forecast for week 3. Current indications suggest no steering signal for higher or lower
pressure dominating. In addition, there is no major signal for temperature anomalies over the country, except for
coastal fringes along the south and east where temperatures are expected to be slightly above average.
Conditions will generally unsettled with a signal for wetter than average conditions across the board.
Week 4 – Monday 24th August to Sunday 30th August
In week 4, there is little confidence in the forecast. A weak signal for higher pressure is indicated across the
country, with warmer than average temperatures spreading across most of the country. There is no steering signal
for precipitation amounts, with the exception of the east where a slight drier than average signal is observed.
Seasonal Outlook for August, September and October (ASO):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the ASO period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to continue below average during the period.
Mean temperatures during ASO are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above average through the three months.
The rainfall forecast across ASO period is less certain, with a weak signal for below-average rainfall overall, especially during August and September.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be above average during ASO, trending 0.2 to 2.0 °C higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northwest coasts.