The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 30/06/2026 12:00
Week 1 – Monday 06th July to Sunday 12th July
Broadly dry and settled conditions for much of this period with a strong signal for high pressure to dominate. Much
drier than average conditions with above average temperatures seem likely, with the highest warm temperature
anomalies in the southeast. Current deterministic guidance suggests the origin of the high pressure will be from
the Azores, with lower humidities compared to what was observed during the recent warm spell in June.
Week 2 – Monday 13th July to Sunday 19th July
High pressure is forecast to become more focussed to the north or east of our area with an increasing signal for
Atlantic mobility to return in some form or another with lower pressures currently signalled to the south and
southwest. The influence of high pressure remains dominant, however, with drier than average conditions still
signalled and mean temperatures above normal.
Week 3 – Monday 20th July to Sunday 26th July
Confidence in the forecast is lower for this period but the general signal for high pressure to the north and east of
Ireland and low pressure to the south and southwest persists. Drier than average conditions along with above
average mean temperatures are signalled, albeit with lower confidence than the previous 2 weeks.
Week 4 – Monday 27th July to Sunday 02nd August
Confidence is quite low for this period with only weak signals for high pressure to the east and low pressure to the
west with a neutral pressure signal over Ireland. Rainfall and temperature anomalies are therefore quite uncertain.
There’s a slightly wetter than average signal for Atlantic coastal areas with a neutral signal elsewhere. Above
average mean temperatures look set to be maintained, although temperatures will be closer to normal in the west
and northwest.
Seasonal Outlook for July August September 2026 (JAS):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JAS period is for above-average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to be below average during the period.
Mean temperatures during JAS are signalled to be above average overall; all three months are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. The likelihood of higher-than-normal temperatures is strongest in September.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, with a weak signal for below-average rainfall overall, especially during July.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to continue slightly above average during JAS, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally, with the highest anomalies expected off southern and eastern coasts.