The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 23/10/2026 15:00
Week 1 – Monday 26th October to Sunday 01st November
Week 1 is indicating our weather will be dominated by high pressure overall situated to the southeast of Ireland.
There will be low pressure to the northwest to start the week which will lead to spells of rain or showers and
breezy conditions at times, followed by drier and calmer periods from mid week. With the low pressure systems
passing to the west/northwest, the highest rainfall accumulations are expected in the north and west, while
rainfall amounts remain below average in the south and east. Temperatures are expected to be around normal for
the last week of October.
Week 2 – Monday 02nd November to Sunday 08th November
While confidence in week 2 is lower, there is a continued signal for higher pressure to dominate conditions again
this week. More settled conditions are expected this week with signals for below average rainfall and near average
temperatures.
Week 3 – Monday 09th November to Sunday 15th November
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3 with current indications showing unsettled conditions as
low pressure dominates in the mid Atlantic. As a result, there are likely to be spells of wet and windy conditions
with an overall signal for wetter than average conditions across the country. Mean air temperatures are forecast to
trend close to average for the time of year again this week.
Week 4 – Monday 16th November to Sunday 22nd November
In week 4, the forecast confidence is low, with a tentative signal for unsettled conditions to prevail and low
pressure to dominate. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be above average as a result with mean air temperatures
continuing to trend close to average for the time of year.
Seasonal Outlook for November December January (NDJ):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are also likely to trend above average with a strong signal for wet and unsettled conditions at times during NDJ.
Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. However, colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times during NDJ, with the highest likelihood of these colder conditions later in the period.
The rainfall forecast for NDJ signals the potential for above average rainfall throughout the period, especially in the south. The highest likelihood for wetter than average conditions are signalled during November and December, with this trend slowly decreasing through meteorological winter.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts are expected to continue above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal generally. SSTs are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northern coasts.