The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 24/07/2026 11:00
Week 1 – Monday 27th July to Sunday 02nd August
In Week 1, indications are for Ireland to lie between low pressure systems in the Atlantic and high pressure to the
east or southeast generating a southerly airflow. Temperatures will likely be above normal throughout out the
country. Rainfall will be most frequent in the northwest with above average amounts expected there. Most other
areas will likely continue drier than normal.
Week 2 – Monday 03rd August to Sunday 09th August
Week 2 is indicating more changeable conditions generally with high pressure still likely to be nearby but less
stationary. A south or southeast airflow is most likely, bringing above average temperatures. However, rain is
expected to move in from the west with areas away from the southeast of the country indicated to have above
average accumulations.
Week 3 – Monday 10th August to Sunday 16th August
Week 3 will likely be changeable with neither high nor low pressure indicated to be dominant. Above average
temperatures are expected nationwide with many areas likely to see above average rainfall amounts.
Week 4 – Monday 17th August to Sunday 23rd August
Week 4 is signalled to continue mostly mixed but some signal for more settled conditions developing towards the
end of the week. Above average temperatures are likely to continue. Some central areas of the country are
signalled to be drier than normal with more average amounts elsewhere.
Seasonal Outlook for August, September and October (ASO):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the ASO period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to continue below average during the period.
Mean temperatures during ASO are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above average through the three months.
The rainfall forecast across ASO period is less certain, with a weak signal for below-average rainfall overall, especially during August and September.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be above average during ASO, trending 0.2 to 2.0 °C higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northwest coasts.