The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 10/07/2026 12:00
Week 1 – Monday 13th July to Sunday 19th July
High pressure will remain dominant during week 1, bringing generally settled and very warm conditions. Temperatures will remain above average nationwide with below average rainfall also. However, there is potential for some heavy showers or thunderstorms later in the week.
Week 2 – Monday 20th July to Sunday 26th July
While confidence in week 2 is lower, current indications suggest that high pressure will remain the dominant driver of our weather. Conditions will remain warmer than average as a result with below average rainfall nationwide. However, a few showers cannot be ruled out.
Week 3 – Monday 27th July to Sunday 02nd August
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3. Conditions may become more mixed as high pressure recedes, with precipitation increasing closer to normal. Rainfall amounts may be slightly above normal on some western and southern coasts. Temperatures will stay above normal.
Week 4 – Monday 03rd August to Sunday 09th August
Confidence is low for week 4. Current indications suggest that conditions will be changeable with the potential for slightly above average rainfall across the country. Temperatures will be above normal, with the warmest conditions likely to be in the southeast.
Seasonal Outlook for July August September 2026 (JAS):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JAS period is for above-average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to be below average during the period.
Mean temperatures during JAS are signalled to be above average overall; all three months are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. The likelihood of higher-than-normal temperatures is strongest in September.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, with a weak signal for below-average rainfall overall, especially during July.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to continue slightly above average during JAS, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally, with the highest anomalies expected off southern and eastern coasts.