The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: Friday 24th April 2026
Week 1 – Monday 27th April to Sunday 03rd May
High Pressure is forecast to be the dominant feature of Ireland’s weather during the week, although there is the possibility of somewhat more changeable weather developing by the end of the week. Rainfall totals are forecast to be below normal nationwide. Mean air temperatures are expected to be a few degrees above the climatological average.
Week 2 – Monday 04th May to Sunday 10th May
There is a signal for the weather to turn more unsettled during the week as Low Pressure gains more of an influence over Ireland’s weather. Rainfall totals are expected to be above average during the week, with showers and longer spells of rain likely to affect the country at times. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be around average or perhaps slightly below average in a few spots.
Week 3 – Monday 11th May to Sunday 17th May
At Forecast Week 3 and through the middle of May, there remains a weak signal in the forecast for Low Pressure to remain a significant feature of Ireland’s weather. Therefore, conditions are likely to be mixed and changeable with showers and spells of rain at times. Rainfall totals are forecast to be above the May average. Meanwhile, mean air temperatures are forecast to be around the climatological average.
Week 4 – Monday 18th May to Sunday 24th May
There is little signal in the forecast towards the end of May. There is an equal likelihood of settled or unsettled weather conditions. There is a very weak signal for slightly wetter than average weather. Temperatures are forecast to be near-normal.
Seasonal Outlook for May, June and July (MJJ)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MJJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the possibility of precipitation trending near average overall.
Mean temperatures during MJJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average generally. The potential for warmer than average temperatures increases through June and July.
The rainfall forecast is less certain with no clear signal for above or below average rainfall overall. There is potential for both wetter and drier spells within the three months.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be above average during MJJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northwest coasts.