The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 10/11/2026 12:00
Week 1 – Monday 16th November to Sunday 22nd November
Week 1 is indicating our weather will be dominated by low pressure situated to the northwest of Ireland. This will
generate a mostly southwesterly airflow which will lead to average temperatures overall, potentially higher along
southern parts. The Atlantic low will feed in frequent showers or spells of rain and so, above average rainfall is
forecast this week, especially in western areas.
Week 2 – Monday 23rd November to Sunday 29th November
While confidence in week 2 is lower, there is a continued signal for low pressure to dominate conditions again this
week, bringing further unsettled conditions. As a result, precipitation amounts are signalling above average once
again with the highest signal over southern parts this week. Mean air temperatures are signalling average for the
time of year in week 2.
Week 3 – Monday 30th November to Sunday 06th December
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3 with current indications showing unsettled conditions
once again as low pressure dominates in the mid Atlantic. As a result, little change is expected this week. There
are likely to be spells of wet weather again for week 3 with an overall signal for wetter than average conditions
across the country. Again, mean air temperatures are forecast to trend close to average for the time of year.
Week 4 – Monday 07th December to Sunday 13th December
In week 4, the forecast confidence is low, with a tentative signal for unsettled conditions to prevail and low
pressure to dominate. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be above average for a fourth week in a row. However,
mean air temperatures are trending higher than average for the time of year.
Seasonal Outlook for November December January (NDJ):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are also likely to trend above average with a strong signal for wet and unsettled conditions at times during NDJ.
Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. However, colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times during NDJ, with the highest likelihood of these colder conditions later in the period.
The rainfall forecast for NDJ signals the potential for above average rainfall throughout the period, especially in the south. The highest likelihood for wetter than average conditions are signalled during November and December, with this trend slowly decreasing through meteorological winter.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts are expected to continue above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal generally. SSTs are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northern coasts.