The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 14 JANUARY 2025
Week 1 (Monday 20 January to Sunday 26 January)
Indications are for pressures to return to normal or slightly below with low pressure being more of an overall influence. It will remain around average though in terms of temperatures for this time of year however it will become wetter. Slightly more than average rainfall is expected especially in the west.
Week 2 (Monday 27 January to Sunday 02 February)
Its looking more likely that low pressure will dominate for week 2 with the weather pattern becoming more unsettled overall. Temperatures will be around average if not slightly above but not by much. Wetter conditions are expected again with some possibly heavy rain for a time in the west.
Week 3 (Monday 03 February to Sunday 09 February)
Looking out to week 3 and low pressure will slowly start to abate somewhat with weather patterns returning back to more settled conditions however it will remain unsettled in the west and north. Temperatures will warm a little but it’ll remain wetter overall. However, the south and east of the country should start to see some improvement in the weather.
Week 4 (Monday 10 February to Sunday 16 February)
While details will be uncertain this far out there are signs that higher pressure will return across the country together with warming temperatures too. It will remain slightly wetter than average but there’s likely to be a good deal of dry weather in the south and east especially.
Seasonal Outlook for January, February and March 2025 (JFM)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JFM period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain but there is a signal for wetter than average spells of weather, particularly in January.
Mean temperatures during JFM are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during January are likely to trend between 1.0 and 2.0°C above average, while temperatures in February and March are likely to be between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal.
The rainfall forecast is less certain but there is potential for wetter than average conditions across the three months, especially in January and in the north and west of the country.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to be above average during JFM, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be closest to normal near north and northwest coasts.