The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 06/10/2026 13:00
Week 1 – Monday 12th October to Sunday 18th October
The weather is forecast to be generally unsettled for this period, with an active Atlantic regime, and there is a
possibility of rain and wind warnings. Spells of rain and showers are expected throughout the week, leading to
above average rainfall amounts nationwide. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly higher than normal.
Week 2 – Monday 19th October to Sunday 25th October
There is a signal that low pressure will continue to dominate, bringing further spells of wet and breezy or windy
weather, which may require warnings. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be above normal across most of the
country, while temperatures are projected to be around normal for late October.
Week 3 – Monday 26th October to Sunday 01st November
A change to more settled weather is possible for the last week of October and into the start of November, with an
increase in pressure bringing below-average rainfall. With lighter winds and some clear spells, fog may become a
hazard. Temperatures are forecast to remain around normal.
Week 4 – Monday 02nd November to Sunday 08th November
The signal for pressure is relatively neutral for this period, so we may see changeable conditions with some rain or
showers, mixed with drier and brighter periods. Rainfall amounts are expected to be near or higher than normal,
while temperatures increase a little.
Seasonal Outlook for October, November, December (OND):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the OND period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are also likely to trend above average with a strong signal for wet and unsettled conditions at times during OND.
Mean temperatures during OND are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. However, colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times towards the end of OND.
The rainfall forecast for OND signals the potential for above average rainfall throughout the period, especially in the south. The highest likelihood for wetter than average conditions are signalled during November.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts are expected to continue above average during OND, trending 0.2 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal generally.