The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 13/11/2026 15:00
Week 1 – Monday 16th November to Sunday 22nd November
In week 1, there is a strong signal for lower pressure, suggesting a return to more unsettled weather. This is
supported by the higher than average rainfall across much of the country, except for the west and north, where
conditions are expected to be drier. Temperatures are signalled to be below average for the time of year.
Week 2 – Monday 23rd November to Sunday 29th November
In week 2, confidence decreases in the forecast. A signal for lower pressure remains across the country with
higher than average precipitation amounts remaining across the country. Throughout the period, there is no clear
steering signal for temperature anomalies.
Week 3 – Monday 30th November to Sunday 06th December
In week 3, confidence in the forecast is low. While the signal for lower pressure remains, the signal has weakened
slightly. Precipitation amounts are expected to be higher than average across most of the country, except for the
northwest, which is signalled to be lower than average. Similarly to week 2, no clear signal for temperature is
present, indicating that temperature will likely be average for the time of year.
Week 4 – Monday 07th December to Sunday 13th December
There is little confidence in week 4. The trend for lower pressure remains, as does the higher than average signal
for precipitation. Similarly to week 3, there is not steering signal for temperature, with a slight signal for higher
than average temperatures along the southeast coast.
Seasonal Outlook for December January February (DJF) forecast:
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the DJF period is for above average temperatures overall. Rainfall amounts are likely to trend near average across most the country, with a slight signal for higher than average rainfall in the south and east. There is a high degree of uncertainty in the DJF forecast due to the potential influence on global weather patterns caused by a very strong El Niño along with ongoing and possible future disruptions to the stratospheric Polar vortex. This introduces the higher likelihood of a south shifted jet stream in the Atlantic at times during the season, with an increased risk of colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, but also periods where drier conditions can develop. Mild, wet, and unsettled conditions are likely to dominate at times also.
Mean temperatures during DJF are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above normal. However, there is a signal for cooler than average conditions at times through the season.
There is uncertainty in the rainfall forecast for DJF with the current signal indicating average rainfall for the north and west, and above average rainfall for the south and east. The highest likelihood for drier conditions is signalled during January and February in the northwest.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts are expected to continue above average during DJF, trending 0.5 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal generally. A slightly cooler signal is indicated on northwest and north coasts, trending 0.2 to 0.5 degrees higher than normal, throughout the period.