The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 04/08/2026 14:00
Week 1 – Monday 10th August to Sunday 16th August
This week is expected to be drier than normal with high pressure building in over Ireland from the northwest, and
the upper-air appears fairly stable. It is predicted to be a degree or two warmer than normal as well. A
northeasterly may prevail at times.
Week 2 – Monday 17th August to Sunday 23rd August
Week two is also expected to be warmer than normal, though only slightly so in the north and northwest. High
pressure is still the more dominant feature with most areas drier than average. However, near normal rainfall
amounts are likely in the Dublin area.
Week 3 – Monday 24th August to Sunday 30th August
Confidence is lower in week 3. Higher pressure is still dominating more overall but it is a weaker signal, and as a
result, it is predicted to be slightly wetter than average in most areas. However, in the southwest, rainfall amounts
are expected to be around average. Temperatures will be close to normal in Connacht and Ulster, and very slightly
above normal in Leinster and Munster.
Week 4 – Monday 31st August to Sunday 06th September
For week 4, there is a signal for slightly drier than normal conditions in most areas , except parts of the east and
southeast which will see closer to normal amounts. It will be a bit warmer than usual in southern parts, and very
slightly warmer than normal further north.
Seasonal Outlook for August, September and October (ASO):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the ASO period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall is likely to continue below average during the period.
Mean temperatures during ASO are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above average through the three months.
The rainfall forecast across ASO period is less certain, with a weak signal for below-average rainfall overall, especially during August and September.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be above average during ASO, trending 0.2 to 2.0 °C higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to average away from northwest coasts.