The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
Issued: 02/10/2026 15:00
Week 1 – Monday 05th October to Sunday 11th October
High pressure is likely to dominate for much of week 1 with generally settled conditions forecast. Rainfall amounts
are expected to below average across the country, particularly in the south, with mean air temperatures trending
close to or slightly above average.
Week 2 – Monday 12th October to Sunday 18th October
While confidence in week 2 is lower, there is a signal for high pressure to remain close by with conditions likely to
be mixed and changeable. Temperatures are likely to be above average for this time of year. Rainfall amounts are
indicated to be below average in the south and far north, while rainfall is likely to be close to or slightly above
average elsewhere.
Week 3 – Monday 19th October to Sunday 25th October
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3 with no strong signal for either high or low pressure to
dominate. As a result, conditions are likely to be changeable with some rain and showers interspersed with drier
periods. Mean air temperatures are likely to be close to or above average. Rainfall amounts are signalled to vary,
with wetter than average conditions in the north and drier than average conditions in the south.
Week 4 – Monday 26th October to Sunday 01st November
In week 4, the forecast confidence is low, with neither high or low pressure signalled to dominate. There is an
indication for mean temperatures to be close to average, with rainfall amounts close to or slightly above average.
Seasonal Outlook for October, November, December (OND):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the OND period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are also likely to trend above average with a strong signal for wet and unsettled conditions at times during OND.
Mean temperatures during OND are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal. However, colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times towards the end of OND.
The rainfall forecast for OND signals the potential for above average rainfall throughout the period, especially in the south. The highest likelihood for wetter than average conditions are signalled during November.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts are expected to continue above average during OND, trending 0.2 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal generally.