2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record across the world, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) State of the Climate 2024 Update. Current Met Éireann data suggests it will be one of Ireland’s warmest year’s in 125 of records, but maybe not the warmest ever.
Issued Monday, 11 November 2024
The WMO report, published on the opening day of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, highlights an extended streak of exceptionally high monthly global mean temperatures that have pushed the global average temperature to 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels.
It goes on to outline how 2015-2024 will be the warmest ten years on record; how the loss of ice from glaciers, sea-level rise and ocean heating are accelerating; and how extreme weather is wreaking havoc on communities and economies across the world.
Among the other key highlights of the report is the fact that atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased by over 50% from 1850 to 2024, reflecting how human activity is causing the atmosphere to trap more heat and drive observed changes in climate.
Figure 1: Annual global mean temperature anomalies (relative to 1850–1900) from 1850 to 2024 from six datasets. The 2024 average is based on data from January-September.
Despite the ‘Red Alert’ flagged in the report, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasises that “this does NOT mean that we have failed to meet Paris Agreement goal to keep the long-term global average surface temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the warming to 1.5°C.”
Highlights:
- Jan-Sep 2024 global average temperature 1.54 (± 0.13) °C above pre-industrial level
- Long-term warming measured over decades remains below 1.5 °C
- Past 10 years are warmest on record and ocean heat rises
- Antarctic sea ice second lowest on record and glacier loss accelerates
- Extreme weather and climate events lead to massive economic and human losses
Provisional Irish Climate 2024 so far
2023 was the warmest and wettest year on record in Ireland with temperature records going back to 1900 and gridded rainfall records going back to 1941. The previous warmest was 2022.
The first half of 2024 continued very mild and wet but since June, we have seen a run of cooler and drier months. January, June, July and September were all cooler than average (when compared to the most recent long term average reference period of 1991-2020), with August closer to average. May 2024 was the warmest May in 125 years.
Since May 2024, only August saw above average rainfall, with the other five months coming in drier than average. If this continues, we could see one of our driest years, but with most of November and December remaining it is too early to call.
Table 1. Island of Ireland average January to September (inclusive) air temperatures and anomalies for 1961-1990 and 1991-2020
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