The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 25 OCTOBER 2024
Week 1 (Monday 28 October to Sunday 03 November)
There is a strong signal for high pressure to dominate over Ireland during this period bringing broadly settled and drier than normal conditions with predominantly light winds. Temperatures are signalled to be above average which indicates that there could be quite a bit of cloud associated with this high pressure system. Clear skies would increase the likelihood of widespread frost which would act to push temperatures below average, but since temperatures are expected to be above average, it seems likely that there are some cloudy nights in the forecast period. This does not mean frosty nights will be entirely absent but severe widespread frosts are unlikely. Given the time of year, mist and fog may also be a feature of the conditions.
Week 2 (Monday 04 November to Sunday 10 November)
High pressure is still expected to dominate into Week 2 but the centre of the high looks to be located further to the northwest in the vicinity of Iceland or Greenland. Drier than normal conditions continue to be predicted. Temperatures are signalled to be closer to average compared with week 1, perhaps indicating a higher instance of night-time frosts. Broadly settled conditions seem likely to continue with some mist and fog also.
Week 3 (Monday 11 November to Sunday 17 November)
Confidence decreases into week 3 with no strong signal towards high or low pressure. Conditions are likely to turn more unsettled compared with the previous 2 weeks during this period, with rainfall amounts predicted to return close to normal and temperatures close to the average for mid-November.
Week 4 (Monday 18 November to Sunday 24 November)
There is a weak signal for high pressure influence to return through mid to late November. Slightly drier than normal conditions are predicted in the west and the northwest with near normal rainfall amounts elsewhere. Temperatures are indicated to be near normal.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR November, December, 2024 and January 2025 (NDJ)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the possibility of precipitation trending slightly below average overall.
Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average over the three month period.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, though there is the potential for drier spells, especially in December.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be average to slightly above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 0.5°C degrees higher than normal generally, with the highest anomalies later in the period.