Dr. Alan Hally will deliver his talk “Ensemble Forecasting: Probabilities, Chaos and Butterflies” at the next Irish Meteorological Society zoominar on the 24th February at 7pm. Registration is free, detail are available here.
Weather forecasters use guidance from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models in their day-to-day forecasting duties. Ensemble forecasting involves doing several concurrent runs of an NWP model, each with slightly different setups from one another. Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) provide a sense of the probability of certain weather conditions occurring, as well as the range of possible weather futures.
Dr. Alan Hally
Dr. Alan Hally is a research meteorologist at Met Éireann. He has a degree in Physics and Astronomy from NUI Galway, a Masters in Meteorology from UCD and a PhD in Atmospheric Physics from Université Paul Sabatier Toulouse III. He is a member of the Met Éireann team that ensures the timely production of NWP forecasting models and has responsibility for developing the Irish Regional Ensemble Prediction System (IREPS). Prior to joining Met Éireann Alan worked as a researcher at Météo France’s research centre in Toulouse.
Ensemble Probability Forecast map – Wind and Gust.