Met Éireann have named Storm Kathleen (the 11th storm of the 2023/2024 season).
Below valid at 10am on Friday 5th April 2024.
Storm Kathleen is a significant low-pressure system tracking off the west coast which will bring strong southerly winds and damaging gusts across the country on Saturday.
Met Éireann have issued a nationwide yellow wind warning for Saturday with orange level wind warnings coming into effect for counties Cork, Kerry and Waterford at 7am, valid until 2pm, and counties Galway and Mayo at 9am, valid until 6pm. Storm Kathleen is a dynamic system so there may be updates to the warnings. Please keep in touch with Met Éireann’s social media channels, www.met.ie and the Met Éireann app to stay up to date with the forecasts.
Deputy Head of Forecasting, Liz Coleman said“It is the end of the Easter holidays so there will be a lot of people travelling and they may not be expecting such unseasonably strong and gusty winds. Please make sure to plan your journeys in advance by keeping in contact with the forecast. We are likely to see some trees down due to the saturated soils and strong winds. There will be dangerous conditions at sea too, coupled with wave overtopping and coastal flooding in some areas.”
The rapid deepening of Storm Kathleen is due the interaction of this low-pressure system with a strong southerly jet stream.
The potential impacts of Storm Kathleen are likely to be:
Very difficult travel conditions
Fallen trees
Some power outages
Coastal flooding
Wave overtopping
Harmonie model – wind/gust
Storm Kathleen will increase water levels on all coasts as we approach a period of spring tides. This will result in strong coastal winds, a rough sea state and significant waves. Coastal flooding and wave overtopping is likely, especially at times of high tide.
The rain associated with Storm Kathleen will fall on already saturated ground, therefore water will make its way quickly into the rivers. Cumulative rainfall totals could lead to elevated river levels in western and southwestern areas.
It will feel quite mild too for this time of year, as the southerly airflow bring warm air over the country.
Do we frequently get storms in April?
Two storms have been named in April since storm naming began in 2015/2016. Storm Hannah was named by Met Éireann on Fri 26th April 2019, which brought storm force winds to Mace Head. Storm Noa named by Météo France, brought storm force winds to Sherkin island on Wed 12th April 2023.
There was also a storm as late as 14th June 2018, Storm Hector, which brought storm force winds to Mace Head.
Why was the name “Kathleen” chosen?
Storm Kathleen is named after Kathleen “Kay” Antonelli/McNulty and Kathleen Lonsdale. This is one of the 7 names Met Éireann chose for the 2023-24 list. Met Éireann chose names of eminent Irish/Northern-Irish scientists to honour their important contributions to science and benefits for humankind.
Kathleen ‘Kay’ McNulty Mauchly Antonelli: one of the mothers of computer programming.
Kay was an Irish computer programmer, and one of the six original programmers on the ENIAC machine, which was one of the first general purpose electronic digital computers.
In 2017, DCU honoured Kay by naming their computer science building in her name.
The Irish-Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC) also honoured her in 2019 when they named their new supercomputer “Kay” following a public vote whereby Kathleen beat out other candidates including Francis Beaufort and Nicholas Callan.
Kathleen Lonsdale: Irish crystallographer who demonstrated the crystal structure of benzene.
She was the first to use Fourier spectral methods while solving the structure of hexachlorobenzene in 1931.
She was also one of the first two women inducted as a Fellow of the Royal Society in 1945 alongside Marjory Stephenson, a British biochemist.
Ireland will experience a respite from the recent wet and windy weather as high pressure builds from the Azores over the weekend and becomes established over Ireland into next week, bringing cold, clear and generally calm conditions with little precipitation.
Figure 1: High Pressure building over Ireland. Colour scale represents airmass temperatures.
Met Éireann meteorologist Liz Coleman explained “It’s going to feel much colder than it has recently, with daytime temperatures in the low single figures and nighttime temperatures falling below zero in most areas. Widespread frost is expected with some ice, although generally dry conditions will limit ice formation to mainly areas of standing water or run off. Nevertheless, do take care while out and about.
While it will be cold, it will be mainly dry with sunny spells as the high pressure will prevent any significant rainfall.
Liz said “There will be showers at times in the north and west over the weekend and in the east through next week but rainfall amounts will be low. So a lot of dry weather in the forecast”.
Figure 2: Rainfall and pressure forecast
Liz continued “The cold temperatures coupled with near calm conditions means fog will also be a feature of our weather, particularly over the weekend. Dense fog patches are likely on Saturday and Sunday night. With little wind to clear the fog, it may linger into the daytime in some areas leading to tricky travelling conditions. Our forecasters will be monitoring the situation and will issue warnings as required.
Make sure to check in on the forecast and warnings for your areas on met.ie
Current indications suggest that high pressure will be in control of our weather until next weekend when the models show a breakdown to more unsettled, but still cold weather. Although there is a lot of uncertainty that far ahead in the forecast.
The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Visit our Weather Warnings page.
For advice and information on staying save in severe weather, please consult www.winterready.ie
A slow moving low pressure system will dominate Ireland’s weather over the weekend, bringing strong and gusty winds through Saturday and into Sunday, which will be accompanied by heavy rain and thundery showers.
Figure 1: Low pressure tracking across the country this weekend
Met Éireann meteorologist Liz Coleman said “There is a lot of weather coming our way over the weekend. South-easterly winds will veer westerly and intensify on Friday night as a band of rain crosses the country. The rain will be heavy at times with localised flooding possible, leading to difficult travelling conditions. Gales along coasts coupled with spring tides may lead to wave overtopping on exposed coasts”.
Figure 2: Wind Forecast
Met Éireann have issued wind and rain warnings. Details can be found on the Weather Warnings page.
There will be some respite from the rain through the afternoon on Saturday as it clears into the Irish sea by the afternoon. However southwest to west winds will continue strong and gusty steering some heavy and possibly thundery showers over mainly the western of the country through Saturday.
Liz continued “By Sunday morning (New Years Eve) the winds will have veered northwesterly with counties Clare, Cork and Kerry experiencing the most intense winds with the ongoing potential for wave overtopping in coastal areas. A mix of sunny spells and scattered showers are expected countrywide for the rest of the day.
Figure 3: Rainfall and Cloud forecast
The showers and winds will ease somewhat for midnight New Years celebrations with a sunny start in many areas on New Years Day and isolated showers. Cloud will thicken from the southwest through the afternoon with a further spell of rain late on Monday.
Make sure to check in on the forecast and warnings for your areas when making plans for the weekend on met.ie
The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Visit our Weather Warnings page.
For advice and information on staying save in severe weather, please consult www.winterready.ie
An active jet-stream this weekend has been leading to the development and deepening of low-pressure systems out in the Atlantic steering stormy weather over Ireland.
Two storms have been named by Met Éireann, the 5th and 6th storms of the current storm-naming season, Storm Elin & Storm Fergus. Storm Elin was named overnight and is impacting Ireland today, with orange level wind warnings for Donegal, Dublin & Wicklow for a time. Storm Fergus was named this morning and will impact Ireland later tomorrow and early tomorrow night (Sunday 10th December), with orange level wind warnings for Clare, Galway & Mayo. Yellow level wind warnings have also been issued for both events for many counties along with a status yellow rainfall warning for today for Donegal. For more detail on warnings check met.ie/warnings.
Storm Elin, Saturday 9th December
Taking a look firstly at Storm Elin. On Friday night, Storm Elin developed through the engagement of the left exit of a jet streak with a surface elongated trough out to the west of Ireland. Elin then quickly tracked eastwards over the north of the country this morning, generating strong to gale force west to northwest winds overland. The storm centre will continue to move eastwards over Scotland this afternoon, but with strong to gale force and gusty west to northwest winds in its wake. Those winds will gradually ease early tonight.
Analysis chart showing the development are of Storm Elin below:
Chart showing the jet stream and pressure pattern below: Storm Elin developed in the area highlighted above where elongated trough interacts with the left exit of a jet streak.
Harmonie evolution of Storm Elin is shown below:
Storm Fergus, Sunday 10th December
A rapidly deepening wave depression, currently forming in the mid-Atlantic as it interacts with a left exit region of a jet streak, will continue to develop into Storm Fergus and approach from the southwest through today, tonight and tomorrow. It had an initial pressure of 996hpa and is expected to deepen to around 968hpa out in the Atlantic early tonight, so meeting the criteria for rapid cyclogenesis. It will fill a little then as it tracks towards Ireland and is expected to make landfall tomorrow evening along the west coast with a central pressure of approximately 980hpa. Met Éireann Meteorologist, Michelle Dillon, said: “Strong to gale force southwest winds veering westerly will be developing through Sunday afternoon, evening and early Sunday night as Storm Fergus tracks eastwards across the country, filling a little as it does. Storm surge will lead to high seas and along with the stormy conditions, there’s the possibility of coastal flooding along parts of the west coast, particularly at high tide.”
Analysis chart at 12Z on December 9th, showing the development of Storm Fergus still well out in the Atlantic.
Chart showing the jet stream and pressure pattern below: Storm Fergus is developing from a wave depression where it is interacting with the left exit of a jet streak.
Harmonie evolution of storm Fergus is shown below:
High or very high seas off the west coast tomorrow:
There is increasing confidence that the current cold spell will last until Tuesday night. A nationwide yellow low temperature/ice warning in place from Friday evening until Sunday afternoon as widespread frost and icy stretches develop. A nationwide yellow fog warning is in place for the same period as dense fog and some patches of freezing fog develop, exacerbating the already hazardous conditions. The warnings will be monitored and reviewed/extended if necessary so keep in touch with the forecast.
Meteorologist Aoife Kealy explained the situation; “There’ll be scattered showers for Friday and the weekend. Most of those will fall as rain but there will still be some hail, sleet and snow at times. Then, on Sunday night a low pressure system will track past the south coast. That could bring some rain and drizzle to eastern and southern coastal counties with some sleet possible too. That system doesn’t look like it will move up over the country so this will allow the cold conditions to persist.”
Daytime temperatures in the coming days will often range from 1 to 5 degrees, with night time temperatures often falling to 0 to -4 degrees or below. As a result, there will be widespread frost and icy stretches, combined with areas of dense fog and freezing fog.
Aoife added, “Because it’ll be so cold, the frost and ice will linger in places right through the day. Areas of fog and freezing fog will be slow to clear from places during the day too. That’ll all combine to make for hazardous travel conditions, poor visibility and slippery conditions underfoot.”
Monday and Tuesday will be cold but dry for many. However, there will be a few showers at times in the east and southeast and once again, these may turn to hail and sleet with a chance of snow on high ground.
Aoife continued, “At the moment it looks like this cold spell will stay with us through Monday and most of Tuesday. After that, current indications point towards a low pressure system spreading from the Atlantic later on Tuesday and on Wednesday, bringing widespread rain and milder conditions. However, there is a chance that as that rain meets the cold air over us, some of it may fall as sleet or snow. But that’ll be short-lived as the milder air will quickly follow.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area, please visit www.met.ie.
For advice on winter weather preparation, please visit www.winterready.ie.
Meteorological winter begins on Friday 1st of December. As that date approaches, a northerly airflow will become established over Ireland, introducing much colder conditions, with widespread frost and some ice developing each night. There will be occasional showers through the week too, which may turn wintry, but these showers will be quite light with minimal accumulations.
How cold will it be?
Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy explained, “An Arctic airmass is going to sink across us this week, bringing noticeably colder conditions than we’ve had lately. Daytime temperatures will struggle to get above the low single figures, especially from Wednesday onwards. Night time temperatures will be near freezing or below through the week too so that means there’ll be widespread frost and some ice. On top of that, light winds will allow fog to develop overnight, becoming dense in places. Any frost, ice and fog will be slow to clear in the mornings making travel difficult at times. So, extra care will be needed on the roads.”
Is it going to be wet or dry?
While it will be cold, the week will be largely dry with some spells of sunshine. High pressure will often be near Ireland through the period, bringing generally settled conditions and preventing any significant rainfall.
Aoife continued “There’s potential for patchy rain in the south on Wednesday night and there will be a few showers at times, especially in the north and east, but these showers will be light. So, overall there’ll be plenty of dry weather.”
And will there be snow?
Aoife said, “Given the cold conditions, on Thursday and Friday it’s possible that some showers will turn to hail or sleet with a chance of some snow, particularly over higher ground. But even where the showers do turn wintry, accumulations will be very small.”
How long will the cold spell last?
Uncertainty increases from the weekend onwards. Current indications suggest that conditions will remain colder than average with further showers, turning wintry at times. However, there is also potential for some longer spells of rain if milder air makes its way across us from the south.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area, please visit www.met.ie.
For advice on winter weather preparation, please visit www.winterready.ie.
Storm Ciarán has been named by the UK Met Office on Sunday 29th October. The storm is due to pass close to the south coast of Ireland on Wednesday night, 1st November. Showers and longer spells of rain will continue through the Bank Holiday weekend and into next week ahead of Storm Ciarán.
A weather advisory has been issued for the coming days as the unsettled weather continues to have an impact across the country.
Advisory for Ireland
On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, there will be heavy showers or longer spells of rain at times over Ireland with flooding likely in places, as soils are saturated and river levels are high.
Later Wednesday and on Thursday, Storm Ciaran will bring falls of heavy rain and strong winds. Current indications suggest the heaviest rain and strongest winds will be in Munster and Leinster with flooding likely.
Valid: 14:40 Sunday 29/10/2023 to 23:30 Thursday 02/11/2023
Issued: 14:41 Sunday 29/10/2023
Low pressure will continue to dominate Ireland’s weather for the week ahead, bringing further heavy showers and rain. With already significant rainfall amounts over the past weeks, ground conditions are saturated or waterlogged nationwide and many rivers are high. As a result, the risk of flooding in the coming days is increased.
Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy said “Even today (Sunday), heavy showers will bring a risk of localised flooding, especially to western areas and the north midlands. So, a yellow rain warning is in place for Cavan, Monaghan, Connacht, Longford, Louth and Westmeath until 9pm Sunday.”
There will be very little respite from the rain ahead of Storm Ciarán, as showers and spells of rain will continue on Monday and Tuesday.
Aoife continued “Further heavy showers on Monday will add to already high rainfall accumulations. Then, more widespread and potentially heavy rain on Tuesday will lead to a further deterioration in ground conditions and river levels. So, there will be an ongoing risk of localised flooding as we move into the new week.”
This wet weather in the early days of next week is likely to exacerbate the impact of Storm Ciarán on Wednesday evening and Thursday. Current indications suggest that the storm will track past our south coast on Wednesday evening and night before moving northeastwards through the Irish Sea and over the UK (see Figure 2 below). As it passes us, it will bring a spell of very wet and windy weather, with heavy rainfall in places. With already wet conditions preceding Storm Ciarán, there will be a heightened risk of flooding, with possible disruption from strong winds also.
Figure 2: Current forecast track of Storm Ciarán on Wednesday night
Currently, there remains some uncertainty in the exact path that Storm Ciarán will take but it is most likely to track past the south coast of Ireland. Updates to the forecast and future warnings in the coming days can be found at https://www.met.ie/warnings
For advice and information on staying save in severe weather, please consult www.winterready.ie
A complex area of low pressure with several embedded fronts, known as Storm Babet, is moving up over the UK today, Wednesday 18th, with its weather fronts bringing bands of heavy rain across Ireland
From the above satellite image we can see large bands of cloud extending from the main low pressure centre just over northern France. These bands of cloud brought significant amounts of rain across southern counties on Tuesday and today (Wednesday).
Met Eireann had orange level rainfall warnings out for Cork, Kerry and Waterford with significant accumulations reported in these counties as of Wednesday morning.
Met Eireann meteorologist Mark Bowe said “coastal parts of Cork got the worst of the rain with reports of flooding and road closures.”
Bowe continued, “the heavy rain is still moving north so we have extended our orange warning in Waterford until later this afternoon and also added Wexford and Wicklow to the orange warnings”
Heavy and persistent rain is due to move over these southern counties today with flooding likely and significant travel disruption.
As the fronts associated with Babet continue to move north over the country we can expect heavy rain at times in all counties and with this Met Eireann also have yellow level rainfall warnings in place across the country.
These warnings will continue right through to later this evening when the last of the heavy rain moves off northern parts of the country tonight
Fig 2 : HARMONIE Rainfall Forecast
Looking ahead to the end of the week Bowe mentioned, “the wet and unsettled weather will stay with us after Babet is gone I’m afraid. Low pressure stays in charge with showers or spells of rain across the country right out to the weekend, with the potential for further yellow rainfall warnings”
Forecasters are monitoring the evolution of Storm Babet and its effects as it passes over the country so be sure to be safe and stay up to date with the latest warnings on www.met.ie/warnings
We are monitoring the development of these events closely. Stay safe and keep up to date with the further updates and the latest warnings on https://www.met.ie/warnings.
Storm Agnes has been named by the UK Met Office on the morning of Monday September 25th. This significant weather event is due to make land fall over Ireland on Wednesday September 27th. Ahead of its arrival Met Éireann have issued a number of wind and rainfall warnings across counties in Leinster, and Munster. The UK Met Office have also issued warnings for Ulster.
This developing storm is currently out in the mid-Atlantic. Our latest analysis chart shows the weather system in its infant stage.
The infra-red satellite image from 12Z on Monday the 25th of September shows the large mass of cloud which will eventually develop into Storm Agnes.
Over the next few hours and days this developing area of low pressure will be taken up by the jet stream and undergo rapid deepening.
Shown below is the jet stream prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s (ECMWF) model. Highlighted in blue is Storm Agnes modelled at 12Z today September the 25th.
Moving on another 24 hrs to 12Z on Tuesday September the 26th we can see the low has moved across the Atlantic, being taken up by the jet stream. It has also been deepened significantly.
Looking ahead to 06Z on Wednesday the 27th of September, the day the storm will make landfall, we can see how the low pressure has transitioned to the northern side of the jet stream and undergone further deepening.
Storm Agnes is likely to make landfall late Wednesday morning and for now a number of weather warnings have been issued in response. These warnings are likely to be updated as further modelling data becomes available.
Currently, the strongest winds are forecast to impact the south and south-east of the country. However, the latest guidance from our high-resolution ensemble prediction system, IREPS, demonstrates the current uncertainty in the exact track of Storm Agnes.
Each dot in the image above shows where an individual forecast from IREPS has forecast the centre of the cyclone to track over Ireland. As we move closer to the event, IREPS will be able to give more certainty with regards to the exact track of Storm Agnes.
We are monitoring the development of this storm closely and further updates to our warnings will be issued. Please keep up to date with the latest warnings on https://www.met.ie/warnings.
After a very wet and unsettled July and August, fine and largely settled conditions have returned for the first week of September.
These warm conditions are due to an area of low pressure to the west of the Iberia which, coupled with high pressure over Scandinavia is advecting warm and humid air over Ireland.
Fig 1: ECMWF Airmass Temperatures for the rest of the week (850mb Wet Bult Potential Temperature)
Meteorologist with Met Éireann Emer Flood explains, “High pressure looks set to dominate our weather for the rest of the week bringing generally fine and settled conditions. Daytime temperatures will reach into the early 20s for much of the country, with parts of the south midlands reaching 25°C or above. These warm daytime temperatures will be coupled with nighttime temperatures not dropping any lower than the early teens leading to some uncomfortable sleeping conditions in the coming days.
Fig 2: Harmonie Maximum and Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday (6th of September)
Last night a minimum temperature of 20.7°C was recorded at Valentia, which is provisionally the first recorded tropical night of the year.
Climatologist with Met Éireann Dr. Sandra Spillane states, “We recorded temperatures greater than 25.0°C at a number of our stations yesterday (Monday the 5th of September) so we’ll be keeping a close eye on temperatures over the coming days to see if heatwave criteria are reached”.
A heatwave occurs at a Met Éireann station when the daily maximum shaded air temperature is greater than twenty-five degrees Celsius (> 25.0°C) for five or more consecutive days. More information on hot weather conditions can be found in our Summer Centre.
So will the fine weather stay with us for the weekend?
Emer continues, “While many areas will see fine and dry weather right out the weekend, there will be showers at times, in the west on Wednesday, but further east towards the end of the week with the chance of some thundery downpours.”
“The models are showing a breakdown to cooler and more unsettled weather early next week although there is still a lot of uncertainty at this stage”.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
For advice on how to stay safe in fine weather, check Be Summer-Ready.
Storm Betty is rapidly developing to the south of Ireland and will impact the country through the rest of the day and overnight. Very strong winds and heavy rainfall are expected, with Cork, Waterford, Tipperary, Wexford, Kilkenny, Carlow and Wicklow likely to get the brunt of Storm Betty winds and rain with south to southwest gales and severe gusts of up to 130 km/hr. An Orange wind warning will be in effect from 9pm Friday the 18th until 3am on Saturday the 19th There is also a status orange rainfall warning for the same counties currently in effect and which will last until 11pm on Friday.
The rain will precede the wind through this afternoon and evening with the potential for some high accumulations over a short period of time likely to lead to localised flooding. There is likely to be some wave overtopping along south, south-eastern and eastern coasts also.
Further status yellow wind warnings will come into effect for Munster and Leinster later today. The UK Met Office has also issued a status yellow wind warning for Down and Antrim from this evening. Further counties may be increased to Orange level in the coming hours so please keep in touch with the latest forecasts and warnings.
Status yellow rainfall warnings are in effect for the entire country. The UK Met Office have also issued status yellow rainfall warnings for Northern Ireland.
Potential impacts especially within the orange warning areas are: Structural damage, falling trees, travel disruption, power outages, localised flooding, wave overtopping.
*Update at 5pm on Friday: A Status Red – Marine Storm warning has been issued from Carnsore Point to Dungarvan to Mizen Head as southeast winds, veering southwesterly increasing to storm force 10, and occasionally violent storm force 11 for a time on Irish coastal waters.
An unseasonably strong jet streak (a more intense area of winds embedded in the jet stream) is currently helping to rapidly intensify Storm Betty to the south of Ireland. Storm Betty will track up across the country today (Friday 18th) and overnight before weakening and clearing away to the north on Saturday morning (19th).
As the very strong winds are unseasonable and trees are in full leaf, very difficult travelling conditions are expected. Whether in the yellow or orange warning areas, temporary structures should be secured adequately. The strong winds will also provide a danger to high sided vehicles.
As Storm Betty is rapidly developing, further warnings may be issued in the coming hours and close monitoring of the situation is advised.
Wet and windy weather will develop on Friday night and early on Saturday as a low pressure system sweeps across Ireland.
After a dry start on Friday, outbreaks of heavy rain will spread across the country later in the day and overnight with strong and gusty northwesterly winds developing, alongside gales on southern and western coasts.
Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy commented that “A low pressure system will approach the country on Friday and that will drive outbreaks of rain eastwards across us Friday evening and night. That rain will turn heavy in places overnight and on Saturday morning, which could lead to spot flooding. The low pressure system will also bring strong and gusty northwest winds, especially in the southwest and south.”
There is still uncertainty around the track of this low and the exact areas that will see the strongest winds and heaviest rain.
Aoife explained “Despite the uncertainty in the low’s exact trajectory, we do know that it will be unseasonably wet and windy. The combination of those strong winds and heavy rain could lead to some difficult travelling conditions and impact any outdoor events on Friday night and Saturday morning, particularly anyone attending festivals and sleeping in tents or temporary structures. Due to trees being in full leaf and the ground being waterlogged from record rainfall during the month of July, there is a risk of some fallen trees in those areas with the strongest winds.”
The low pressure system will gradually move into the Irish Sea on Saturday, with scattered showers following from the northwest.
“That low will clear to the east on Saturday afternoon, and a mix of sunshine and showers will follow for later Saturday and Sunday. It’ll be a brighter day on Sunday with more in the way of dry spells.” continued Aoife.
Sunday is looking like the best day of the weekend – another low pressure system will cross the country on Monday, bringing further rainfall.
Aoife says “With the unseasonable weather expected over the weekend, especially with more people on the move for the bank holiday, we ask people to keep an eye on the forecast and any possible warnings for their area at www.met.ie and on the Met Éireann app.”
Extreme and dangerous heat has been impacting many parts of the northern hemisphere, including Mediterranean countries where air temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees Celsius above average. The heatwave is set to continue this week with record breaking temperatures forecast. In contrast, Ireland is experiencing unsettled weather with temperatures on the cool side, near or below the July average.
Why is there such a difference? Met Éireann meteorologist Linda Hughes explains “The main contributing factor is the position of the jet stream relative to Ireland. The jet stream is a band of very strong winds located around 9 or 10km above the surface of the earth which can meander to the north or south of Ireland. At the moment the jet stream is positioned to the south (Fig.1), which is placing Ireland in a cool airmass and a mainly west to northwest airflow (Fig.2)”.
Fig1: Jet stream at 12Z 18th July 2023 (ECMWF)
Fig 2: Wet-bulb potential temperature at 12Z 18th July 2023 (ECMWF)
A blocking area of high pressure is affecting southern Europe, which is inhibiting cloud formation and allowing heat to build day on day. A marine heatwave is occurring in the Mediterranean Sea with sea surface temperatures in the mid to high twenties (Fig.3). Nighttime temperatures are also remaining very high. Red high temperature warnings have been issued in some Mediterranean countries. For any holidaymakers heading in that direction check www.meteoalarm.org for all active warnings.
Fig 3: Sea surface temperatures (degrees Celsius)
Linda Hughes continues, “In contrast, Ireland is currently under the influence of Atlantic low pressure systems, bringing changeable weather with spells of heavy rain at times. Looking at the extended range forecast, there is no clear signal for any long-settled periods”.
A spell of unseasonably wet and windy weather this weekend as an active low pressure system moves across the country.
Met Éireann forecaster Liz Coleman explains “ We’ve seen notable accumulations of rain over the south and southwest this morning (Friday). The band of persistent rain is now moving over the midlands and north of the country, bringing the possibility of localised flooding. Visibility is particularly poor in these conditions so do take care if you are travelling on the roads. It will be windy too for a time this afternoon, with fresh to strong easterly winds, leading to choppy conditions at sea particularly on eastern coasts. Isolated showers will follow into the south through the afternoon with some heavy and possibly thundery bursts and winds veering southwesterly. Yellow rainfall warnings are still in effect across the country.
Tomorrow, Saturday we can expect a further band of rain or showers as the low pressure tracks eastwards, introducing fresh to strong and gusty north to northwest winds. It will be particularly windy along exposed coasts in the west and northwest, with gales likely at sea.
Liz Coleman continues “We don’t want people to be caught off guard, especially with summer holidays in full swing. We ask people to keep up to date with the forecast for their area via www.met.ie and on the Met Éireann app. For further advice on how to plan accordingly check BeSummerReady.”
The winds will moderate westerly on Sunday with a mix of sunny spells and scattered showers and early indications are for our weather to remain unsettled into next week.
By Meteorologists Rebecca Cantwell and Evelyn Cusack.
The current fine spell is set to continue over the June Bank Holiday Weekend and right through the first week in June. The Azores anticyclone (high pressure system) is shifted from its normal position around the Azores (and hence its name) up to the north of Ireland producing an easterly airflow over Ireland. This is called a blocking high pressure system as it literally blocks out the rainbelts in the Atlantic and diverts away the Jet stream and low pressure systems to the north and to the south and in fact over the Azores, the Azores high has been replaced this week by a low pressure system and rain. Over southern Europe daytime heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Portugal over to Greece, while we enjoy fine, dry weather. See the Atlantic chart below showing the Azores high shifted to the north of Ireland and the precipitation forecast over Mediterranean countries.
So lovely, fine, sunny weather in store for Bloom and for all the myriad of events around the country for the June Weekend but also for the start of the Leaving Cert and best wishes to all the students from Met Éireann.
Sea Surface Temperature Sat 03 June 2023 13:00
Sea temperatures are nearly 16°C off Kerry but only 12°C in the Northeast so an east to northeast airflow makes it feel fresh anywhere along the north and east coast with air temperatures here typically of 15 to 18°C. But apart from these coastal areas and mountains, it will be warm with maximum values reaching 21 to 24°C countrywide and as high as 25 degrees in in parts of the west. Check Sea surface temperatures and mountains forecasts for your area.
Safety on the Water: Please take great care if out on or near water. Avoid swimming in potentially treacherous locations like flooded quarries. Swim at designated, lifeguarded waterways and beaches, between the flags, where possible. Stay within your depth. Always wear a personal flotation device/lifejacket when boating or angling and ensure that it has correctly fitting straps. Contact the Coastguard if you see somebody in trouble or think they are in trouble on the water or along the coast Dial 112/999. For more information https://watersafety.ie/open-water-swimming/.
Visit EPA Beaches.ie to view bathing water quality and get the Met Éireann weather forecast for over 200 beaches around Ireland.
UV: The UV index is 7. Seek shade during peak sunshine hours of 12-3pm, this is when UV is at its highest and people are at greatest risk of sunstroke and sunburn. Cover up with a hat and long sleeved T-shirt. Skin cancer is the most common type of cancer in Ireland and to help prevent it don’t burn. Remain hydrated. Carry plenty of water on journeys in case of delays due to increased numbers visiting coastal and rural areas.
Fire: There is a Fire Danger Notice – Condition Orange in operation until the 6th June (likely to be extended). Ground conditions are quite dry so please do not ignite naked flames in any woodland or grassland areas. Never barbecue in parks, wildland areas or any site in close proximity to vegetation, trees etc. Most wildfires in Ireland are a result of human activities and are therefore avoidable.
Please do enjoy the fine weather but stay safe. Met Éireann now has a daily audio weather forecast available as a podcast, recorded by our weather forecasters. Search Weather Forecast from Met Éireann on your podcast player – it’s available now on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher and more. Or listen on Audioboom if the player is not available. For your local 10-day forecast www.met.ie or App.
The weather for this Easter weekend will be mixed with an Atlantic airflow feeding in some rain at times.
Good Friday will be fine but followed by cloudier weather and some rain over the weekend. It’ll turn breezier too on Easter Sunday, and there’ll be a mix of showers and sunny spells for Easter Monday. Overall, the east of the country will have the driest conditions. Temperatures will be just around normal for the time of year with Friday feeling quite mild in the sunshine but overall feeling on the cool side. Gardeners be warned that there may be some air frost Thursday night/early Friday morning.
“Good Friday will the best day countrywide this Easter. It will be dry and bright for most of the country, with just the chance of light isolated showers. Temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees in a mostly light southerly breeze” says forecaster Linda Hughes.
“A lot of dry weather too, in the east over the Easter weekend, however it will be overall quite cloudy with scattered outbreaks of rain and some heavy rain moving in at times from the Atlantic” continues Linda. “Southerly winds will be mostly light on Saturday, but will freshen during Easter Sunday will be a fresh, blustery day’.
Easter Monday will be a bright, breezy day with sunny spells and passing showers.
Daytime temperatures for the Easter weekend will range around 10 to 14 degrees, with Saturday looking to be the coolest day. Night time temperatures typically 5 to 8 degrees
This mixed Atlantic regime is set to continue through next week and next weekend also as you can see from the airflow prediction guidance from ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts)..
If you’re out and about this weekend, hiking, biking or just a stroll on the beach, make sure you keep up to date with your localised forecast using the Met Eireann App and look for our new ‘feels like’ temperatures, daily podcasts and mountains forecast.
The uncertainties surrounding the forecast for Thursday the 9th of March are keenly illustrated on the chart below. The image demonstrates the probability of precipitation falling as either drizzle, rain, sleet or snow based on a forecast from Met Éireann’s high-resolution ensemble prediction system, IREPS. The darker the colour, the more certain the forecast is for that precipitation type to fall.
Probability of precipitation falling as either drizzle, rain, sleet or snow at 3pm on Thursday the 9th of March from a model forecast on Tuesday the 7th of March.
The snapshot shown is the forecast for 3pm on Thursday the 9th of March, as of the morning of the 7th of March. Focusing on the “Rain”, “Sleet” and “Snow” panels, the transformation of the precipitation as it moves northwards across the country is evident, with the precipitation almost certain to fall as rain in the somewhat milder air to the south, becoming sleet through north Munster and into the midlands and a very high likelihood of snow in north Leinster and Ulster.
According to Dr. Alan Hally, Forecasting Services Manager at Met Éireann, “Our high-resolution ensemble prediction system is specifically designed to represent the uncertainties related to these types of events. In Ireland, the occurrence of snow is almost always a marginal event, and our forecasters rely heavily on ensemble prediction systems in order to determine the most likely outcome and to decide on appropriate and timely warnings”.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland, go to http://www.met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page.
For information on winter weather preparation, please consult www.winterready.ie.
Issued at 6pm Monday 6th March 2023
Much colder this week as a northerly airflow moves over the country introducing sharp to severe frosts at night and icy patches with some snow in the forecast.
A cold front sinks southward across Ireland on Monday evening (March 6th) introducing a much colder polar maritime airmass. Met Éireann has issued a Yellow Ice warning for tonight (Monday 6th of March) as temperatures drop to freezing countrywide.
According to Forecaster Gerry Murphy “For Monday night temperatures will fall to between -4 to 0 degrees leading to a widespread sharp frost and some icy stretches, especially over the northern half of the country. Further south, outbreaks of rain will turn to sleet or snow for a time overnight in Munster leading to poor visibility and hazardous driving conditions. A cold bright day on Tuesday will be followed by a very cold night on Tuesday night with widespread frost and some icy stretches. Outbreaks of sleet or snow may develop late in the night in Cork and Kerry”.
Airmass for Tuesday 7th March – Thursday the 9th of Marth showing a cold (blue) airmass extending southwards over Ireland.
There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast from midweek onwards, with some model runs bringing the boundary between the cold polar airmass and the milder tropical airmass northwards over the country, which could bring a spell of snow for a time ahead of the milder air. The extent of this event and its impacts will become more evident by midweek, at which time further warnings will be issued if necessary.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
For information on winter weather preparation, please consult www.winterready.ie
Meteorologist's Commentary
Storm Kathleen, Saturday 6th April 2024
Met Éireann have named Storm Kathleen (the 11th storm of the 2023/2024 season).
Below valid at 10am on Friday 5th April 2024.
Storm Kathleen is a significant low-pressure system tracking off the west coast which will bring strong southerly winds and damaging gusts across the country on Saturday.
Met Éireann have issued a nationwide yellow wind warning for Saturday with orange level wind warnings coming into effect for counties Cork, Kerry and Waterford at 7am, valid until 2pm, and counties Galway and Mayo at 9am, valid until 6pm. Storm Kathleen is a dynamic system so there may be updates to the warnings. Please keep in touch with Met Éireann’s social media channels, www.met.ie and the Met Éireann app to stay up to date with the forecasts.
Deputy Head of Forecasting, Liz Coleman said “It is the end of the Easter holidays so there will be a lot of people travelling and they may not be expecting such unseasonably strong and gusty winds. Please make sure to plan your journeys in advance by keeping in contact with the forecast. We are likely to see some trees down due to the saturated soils and strong winds. There will be dangerous conditions at sea too, coupled with wave overtopping and coastal flooding in some areas.”
The rapid deepening of Storm Kathleen is due the interaction of this low-pressure system with a strong southerly jet stream.
The potential impacts of Storm Kathleen are likely to be:
Harmonie model – wind/gust
Storm Kathleen will increase water levels on all coasts as we approach a period of spring tides. This will result in strong coastal winds, a rough sea state and significant waves. Coastal flooding and wave overtopping is likely, especially at times of high tide.
The rain associated with Storm Kathleen will fall on already saturated ground, therefore water will make its way quickly into the rivers. Cumulative rainfall totals could lead to elevated river levels in western and southwestern areas.
It will feel quite mild too for this time of year, as the southerly airflow bring warm air over the country.
Do we frequently get storms in April?
Two storms have been named in April since storm naming began in 2015/2016. Storm Hannah was named by Met Éireann on Fri 26th April 2019, which brought storm force winds to Mace Head. Storm Noa named by Météo France, brought storm force winds to Sherkin island on Wed 12th April 2023.
There was also a storm as late as 14th June 2018, Storm Hector, which brought storm force winds to Mace Head.
Why was the name “Kathleen” chosen?
Storm Kathleen is named after Kathleen “Kay” Antonelli/McNulty and Kathleen Lonsdale. This is one of the 7 names Met Éireann chose for the 2023-24 list. Met Éireann chose names of eminent Irish/Northern-Irish scientists to honour their important contributions to science and benefits for humankind.
Kathleen ‘Kay’ McNulty Mauchly Antonelli: one of the mothers of computer programming.
Kathleen Lonsdale: Irish crystallographer who demonstrated the crystal structure of benzene.
For further information on storm naming check https://www.met.ie/forecasts/storm-names.
First cold snap of 2024 – Friday 05 January 2024
Ireland will experience a respite from the recent wet and windy weather as high pressure builds from the Azores over the weekend and becomes established over Ireland into next week, bringing cold, clear and generally calm conditions with little precipitation.
Figure 1: High Pressure building over Ireland. Colour scale represents airmass temperatures.
Met Éireann meteorologist Liz Coleman explained “It’s going to feel much colder than it has recently, with daytime temperatures in the low single figures and nighttime temperatures falling below zero in most areas. Widespread frost is expected with some ice, although generally dry conditions will limit ice formation to mainly areas of standing water or run off. Nevertheless, do take care while out and about.
While it will be cold, it will be mainly dry with sunny spells as the high pressure will prevent any significant rainfall.
Liz said “There will be showers at times in the north and west over the weekend and in the east through next week but rainfall amounts will be low. So a lot of dry weather in the forecast”.
Figure 2: Rainfall and pressure forecast
Liz continued “The cold temperatures coupled with near calm conditions means fog will also be a feature of our weather, particularly over the weekend. Dense fog patches are likely on Saturday and Sunday night. With little wind to clear the fog, it may linger into the daytime in some areas leading to tricky travelling conditions. Our forecasters will be monitoring the situation and will issue warnings as required.
Make sure to check in on the forecast and warnings for your areas on met.ie
Current indications suggest that high pressure will be in control of our weather until next weekend when the models show a breakdown to more unsettled, but still cold weather. Although there is a lot of uncertainty that far ahead in the forecast.
The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Visit our Weather Warnings page.
For advice and information on staying save in severe weather, please consult www.winterready.ie
Unsettled weather to end 2023 but a bright start to 2024!
A slow moving low pressure system will dominate Ireland’s weather over the weekend, bringing strong and gusty winds through Saturday and into Sunday, which will be accompanied by heavy rain and thundery showers.
Figure 1: Low pressure tracking across the country this weekend
Met Éireann meteorologist Liz Coleman said “There is a lot of weather coming our way over the weekend. South-easterly winds will veer westerly and intensify on Friday night as a band of rain crosses the country. The rain will be heavy at times with localised flooding possible, leading to difficult travelling conditions. Gales along coasts coupled with spring tides may lead to wave overtopping on exposed coasts”.
Figure 2: Wind Forecast
Met Éireann have issued wind and rain warnings. Details can be found on the Weather Warnings page.
There will be some respite from the rain through the afternoon on Saturday as it clears into the Irish sea by the afternoon. However southwest to west winds will continue strong and gusty steering some heavy and possibly thundery showers over mainly the western of the country through Saturday.
Liz continued “By Sunday morning (New Years Eve) the winds will have veered northwesterly with counties Clare, Cork and Kerry experiencing the most intense winds with the ongoing potential for wave overtopping in coastal areas. A mix of sunny spells and scattered showers are expected countrywide for the rest of the day.
Figure 3: Rainfall and Cloud forecast
The showers and winds will ease somewhat for midnight New Years celebrations with a sunny start in many areas on New Years Day and isolated showers. Cloud will thicken from the southwest through the afternoon with a further spell of rain late on Monday.
Make sure to check in on the forecast and warnings for your areas when making plans for the weekend on met.ie
The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Visit our Weather Warnings page.
For advice and information on staying save in severe weather, please consult www.winterready.ie
A weekend of stormy weather
By Meteorologist Michelle Dillon
An active jet-stream this weekend has been leading to the development and deepening of low-pressure systems out in the Atlantic steering stormy weather over Ireland.
Two storms have been named by Met Éireann, the 5th and 6th storms of the current storm-naming season, Storm Elin & Storm Fergus. Storm Elin was named overnight and is impacting Ireland today, with orange level wind warnings for Donegal, Dublin & Wicklow for a time. Storm Fergus was named this morning and will impact Ireland later tomorrow and early tomorrow night (Sunday 10th December), with orange level wind warnings for Clare, Galway & Mayo. Yellow level wind warnings have also been issued for both events for many counties along with a status yellow rainfall warning for today for Donegal. For more detail on warnings check met.ie/warnings.
Storm Elin, Saturday 9th December
Taking a look firstly at Storm Elin. On Friday night, Storm Elin developed through the engagement of the left exit of a jet streak with a surface elongated trough out to the west of Ireland. Elin then quickly tracked eastwards over the north of the country this morning, generating strong to gale force west to northwest winds overland. The storm centre will continue to move eastwards over Scotland this afternoon, but with strong to gale force and gusty west to northwest winds in its wake. Those winds will gradually ease early tonight.
Analysis chart showing the development are of Storm Elin below:
Chart showing the jet stream and pressure pattern below: Storm Elin developed in the area highlighted above where elongated trough interacts with the left exit of a jet streak.
Harmonie evolution of Storm Elin is shown below:
Storm Fergus, Sunday 10th December
A rapidly deepening wave depression, currently forming in the mid-Atlantic as it interacts with a left exit region of a jet streak, will continue to develop into Storm Fergus and approach from the southwest through today, tonight and tomorrow. It had an initial pressure of 996hpa and is expected to deepen to around 968hpa out in the Atlantic early tonight, so meeting the criteria for rapid cyclogenesis. It will fill a little then as it tracks towards Ireland and is expected to make landfall tomorrow evening along the west coast with a central pressure of approximately 980hpa. Met Éireann Meteorologist, Michelle Dillon, said: “Strong to gale force southwest winds veering westerly will be developing through Sunday afternoon, evening and early Sunday night as Storm Fergus tracks eastwards across the country, filling a little as it does. Storm surge will lead to high seas and along with the stormy conditions, there’s the possibility of coastal flooding along parts of the west coast, particularly at high tide.”
Analysis chart at 12Z on December 9th, showing the development of Storm Fergus still well out in the Atlantic.
Chart showing the jet stream and pressure pattern below: Storm Fergus is developing from a wave depression where it is interacting with the left exit of a jet streak.
Harmonie evolution of storm Fergus is shown below:
High or very high seas off the west coast tomorrow:
Cold spell continues this weekend and into early next week.
There is increasing confidence that the current cold spell will last until Tuesday night. A nationwide yellow low temperature/ice warning in place from Friday evening until Sunday afternoon as widespread frost and icy stretches develop. A nationwide yellow fog warning is in place for the same period as dense fog and some patches of freezing fog develop, exacerbating the already hazardous conditions. The warnings will be monitored and reviewed/extended if necessary so keep in touch with the forecast.
Meteorologist Aoife Kealy explained the situation; “There’ll be scattered showers for Friday and the weekend. Most of those will fall as rain but there will still be some hail, sleet and snow at times. Then, on Sunday night a low pressure system will track past the south coast. That could bring some rain and drizzle to eastern and southern coastal counties with some sleet possible too. That system doesn’t look like it will move up over the country so this will allow the cold conditions to persist.”
Daytime temperatures in the coming days will often range from 1 to 5 degrees, with night time temperatures often falling to 0 to -4 degrees or below. As a result, there will be widespread frost and icy stretches, combined with areas of dense fog and freezing fog.
Aoife added, “Because it’ll be so cold, the frost and ice will linger in places right through the day. Areas of fog and freezing fog will be slow to clear from places during the day too. That’ll all combine to make for hazardous travel conditions, poor visibility and slippery conditions underfoot.”
Monday and Tuesday will be cold but dry for many. However, there will be a few showers at times in the east and southeast and once again, these may turn to hail and sleet with a chance of snow on high ground.
Aoife continued, “At the moment it looks like this cold spell will stay with us through Monday and most of Tuesday. After that, current indications point towards a low pressure system spreading from the Atlantic later on Tuesday and on Wednesday, bringing widespread rain and milder conditions. However, there is a chance that as that rain meets the cold air over us, some of it may fall as sleet or snow. But that’ll be short-lived as the milder air will quickly follow.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area, please visit www.met.ie.
For advice on winter weather preparation, please visit www.winterready.ie.
Cold Spell as we near Meteorological Winter
Cold spell as we near Meteorological Winter
Meteorological winter begins on Friday 1st of December. As that date approaches, a northerly airflow will become established over Ireland, introducing much colder conditions, with widespread frost and some ice developing each night. There will be occasional showers through the week too, which may turn wintry, but these showers will be quite light with minimal accumulations.
How cold will it be?
Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy explained, “An Arctic airmass is going to sink across us this week, bringing noticeably colder conditions than we’ve had lately. Daytime temperatures will struggle to get above the low single figures, especially from Wednesday onwards. Night time temperatures will be near freezing or below through the week too so that means there’ll be widespread frost and some ice. On top of that, light winds will allow fog to develop overnight, becoming dense in places. Any frost, ice and fog will be slow to clear in the mornings making travel difficult at times. So, extra care will be needed on the roads.”
Is it going to be wet or dry?
While it will be cold, the week will be largely dry with some spells of sunshine. High pressure will often be near Ireland through the period, bringing generally settled conditions and preventing any significant rainfall.
Aoife continued “There’s potential for patchy rain in the south on Wednesday night and there will be a few showers at times, especially in the north and east, but these showers will be light. So, overall there’ll be plenty of dry weather.”
And will there be snow?
Aoife said, “Given the cold conditions, on Thursday and Friday it’s possible that some showers will turn to hail or sleet with a chance of some snow, particularly over higher ground. But even where the showers do turn wintry, accumulations will be very small.”
How long will the cold spell last?
Uncertainty increases from the weekend onwards. Current indications suggest that conditions will remain colder than average with further showers, turning wintry at times. However, there is also potential for some longer spells of rain if milder air makes its way across us from the south.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area, please visit www.met.ie.
For advice on winter weather preparation, please visit www.winterready.ie.
issued: 1600hrs Monday 27 November 2023
A very unsettled end to October and start to November with Storm Ciarán on the way
Storm Ciarán has been named by the UK Met Office on Sunday 29th October. The storm is due to pass close to the south coast of Ireland on Wednesday night, 1st November. Showers and longer spells of rain will continue through the Bank Holiday weekend and into next week ahead of Storm Ciarán.
A weather advisory has been issued for the coming days as the unsettled weather continues to have an impact across the country.
Advisory for Ireland
On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, there will be heavy showers or longer spells of rain at times over Ireland with flooding likely in places, as soils are saturated and river levels are high.
Later Wednesday and on Thursday, Storm Ciaran will bring falls of heavy rain and strong winds. Current indications suggest the heaviest rain and strongest winds will be in Munster and Leinster with flooding likely.
Additional Impacts:
Poor visibility,
Difficult/dangerous driving conditions
Valid: 14:40 Sunday 29/10/2023 to 23:30 Thursday 02/11/2023
Issued: 14:41 Sunday 29/10/2023
Low pressure will continue to dominate Ireland’s weather for the week ahead, bringing further heavy showers and rain. With already significant rainfall amounts over the past weeks, ground conditions are saturated or waterlogged nationwide and many rivers are high. As a result, the risk of flooding in the coming days is increased.
Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy said “Even today (Sunday), heavy showers will bring a risk of localised flooding, especially to western areas and the north midlands. So, a yellow rain warning is in place for Cavan, Monaghan, Connacht, Longford, Louth and Westmeath until 9pm Sunday.”
Visit our Weather Warnings page.
There will be very little respite from the rain ahead of Storm Ciarán, as showers and spells of rain will continue on Monday and Tuesday.
Aoife continued “Further heavy showers on Monday will add to already high rainfall accumulations. Then, more widespread and potentially heavy rain on Tuesday will lead to a further deterioration in ground conditions and river levels. So, there will be an ongoing risk of localised flooding as we move into the new week.”
This wet weather in the early days of next week is likely to exacerbate the impact of Storm Ciarán on Wednesday evening and Thursday. Current indications suggest that the storm will track past our south coast on Wednesday evening and night before moving northeastwards through the Irish Sea and over the UK (see Figure 2 below). As it passes us, it will bring a spell of very wet and windy weather, with heavy rainfall in places. With already wet conditions preceding Storm Ciarán, there will be a heightened risk of flooding, with possible disruption from strong winds also.
Figure 2: Current forecast track of Storm Ciarán on Wednesday night
Currently, there remains some uncertainty in the exact path that Storm Ciarán will take but it is most likely to track past the south coast of Ireland. Updates to the forecast and future warnings in the coming days can be found at https://www.met.ie/warnings
For advice and information on staying save in severe weather, please consult www.winterready.ie
Heavy rain associated with Storm Babet continues to affect Ireland - updated Wednesday
A complex area of low pressure with several embedded fronts, known as Storm Babet, is moving up over the UK today, Wednesday 18th, with its weather fronts bringing bands of heavy rain across Ireland
From the above satellite image we can see large bands of cloud extending from the main low pressure centre just over northern France. These bands of cloud brought significant amounts of rain across southern counties on Tuesday and today (Wednesday).
Met Eireann had orange level rainfall warnings out for Cork, Kerry and Waterford with significant accumulations reported in these counties as of Wednesday morning.
Met Eireann meteorologist Mark Bowe said “coastal parts of Cork got the worst of the rain with reports of flooding and road closures.”
Bowe continued, “the heavy rain is still moving north so we have extended our orange warning in Waterford until later this afternoon and also added Wexford and Wicklow to the orange warnings”
Heavy and persistent rain is due to move over these southern counties today with flooding likely and significant travel disruption.
As the fronts associated with Babet continue to move north over the country we can expect heavy rain at times in all counties and with this Met Eireann also have yellow level rainfall warnings in place across the country.
These warnings will continue right through to later this evening when the last of the heavy rain moves off northern parts of the country tonight
Fig 2 : HARMONIE Rainfall Forecast
Looking ahead to the end of the week Bowe mentioned, “the wet and unsettled weather will stay with us after Babet is gone I’m afraid. Low pressure stays in charge with showers or spells of rain across the country right out to the weekend, with the potential for further yellow rainfall warnings”
Forecasters are monitoring the evolution of Storm Babet and its effects as it passes over the country so be sure to be safe and stay up to date with the latest warnings on www.met.ie/warnings
Fig 3 : ECMWF Mean Sea Level Pressure & Rainfall Forecast
We are monitoring the development of these events closely. Stay safe and keep up to date with the further updates and the latest warnings on https://www.met.ie/warnings.
Storm Agnes
Storm Agnes has been named by the UK Met Office on the morning of Monday September 25th. This significant weather event is due to make land fall over Ireland on Wednesday September 27th. Ahead of its arrival Met Éireann have issued a number of wind and rainfall warnings across counties in Leinster, and Munster. The UK Met Office have also issued warnings for Ulster.
This developing storm is currently out in the mid-Atlantic. Our latest analysis chart shows the weather system in its infant stage.
The infra-red satellite image from 12Z on Monday the 25th of September shows the large mass of cloud which will eventually develop into Storm Agnes.
Over the next few hours and days this developing area of low pressure will be taken up by the jet stream and undergo rapid deepening.
Shown below is the jet stream prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s (ECMWF) model. Highlighted in blue is Storm Agnes modelled at 12Z today September the 25th.
Moving on another 24 hrs to 12Z on Tuesday September the 26th we can see the low has moved across the Atlantic, being taken up by the jet stream. It has also been deepened significantly.
Looking ahead to 06Z on Wednesday the 27th of September, the day the storm will make landfall, we can see how the low pressure has transitioned to the northern side of the jet stream and undergone further deepening.
Storm Agnes is likely to make landfall late Wednesday morning and for now a number of weather warnings have been issued in response. These warnings are likely to be updated as further modelling data becomes available.
Currently, the strongest winds are forecast to impact the south and south-east of the country. However, the latest guidance from our high-resolution ensemble prediction system, IREPS, demonstrates the current uncertainty in the exact track of Storm Agnes.
Each dot in the image above shows where an individual forecast from IREPS has forecast the centre of the cyclone to track over Ireland. As we move closer to the event, IREPS will be able to give more certainty with regards to the exact track of Storm Agnes.
We are monitoring the development of this storm closely and further updates to our warnings will be issued. Please keep up to date with the latest warnings on https://www.met.ie/warnings.
A warm start to Autumn
Issued 5th of September 2023
After a very wet and unsettled July and August, fine and largely settled conditions have returned for the first week of September.
These warm conditions are due to an area of low pressure to the west of the Iberia which, coupled with high pressure over Scandinavia is advecting warm and humid air over Ireland.
Fig 1: ECMWF Airmass Temperatures for the rest of the week (850mb Wet Bult Potential Temperature)
Meteorologist with Met Éireann Emer Flood explains, “High pressure looks set to dominate our weather for the rest of the week bringing generally fine and settled conditions. Daytime temperatures will reach into the early 20s for much of the country, with parts of the south midlands reaching 25°C or above. These warm daytime temperatures will be coupled with nighttime temperatures not dropping any lower than the early teens leading to some uncomfortable sleeping conditions in the coming days.
Fig 2: Harmonie Maximum and Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday (6th of September)
Last night a minimum temperature of 20.7°C was recorded at Valentia, which is provisionally the first recorded tropical night of the year.
Climatologist with Met Éireann Dr. Sandra Spillane states, “We recorded temperatures greater than 25.0°C at a number of our stations yesterday (Monday the 5th of September) so we’ll be keeping a close eye on temperatures over the coming days to see if heatwave criteria are reached”.
A heatwave occurs at a Met Éireann station when the daily maximum shaded air temperature is greater than twenty-five degrees Celsius (> 25.0°C) for five or more consecutive days. More information on hot weather conditions can be found in our Summer Centre.
So will the fine weather stay with us for the weekend?
Emer continues, “While many areas will see fine and dry weather right out the weekend, there will be showers at times, in the west on Wednesday, but further east towards the end of the week with the chance of some thundery downpours.”
“The models are showing a breakdown to cooler and more unsettled weather early next week although there is still a lot of uncertainty at this stage”.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
For advice on how to stay safe in fine weather, check Be Summer-Ready.
Storm Betty to Impact Ireland Friday 18th August 2023 - updated at 5pm
By Meteorologist Paul Downes
Storm Betty is rapidly developing to the south of Ireland and will impact the country through the rest of the day and overnight. Very strong winds and heavy rainfall are expected, with Cork, Waterford, Tipperary, Wexford, Kilkenny, Carlow and Wicklow likely to get the brunt of Storm Betty winds and rain with south to southwest gales and severe gusts of up to 130 km/hr. An Orange wind warning will be in effect from 9pm Friday the 18th until 3am on Saturday the 19th There is also a status orange rainfall warning for the same counties currently in effect and which will last until 11pm on Friday.
The rain will precede the wind through this afternoon and evening with the potential for some high accumulations over a short period of time likely to lead to localised flooding. There is likely to be some wave overtopping along south, south-eastern and eastern coasts also.
Further status yellow wind warnings will come into effect for Munster and Leinster later today. The UK Met Office has also issued a status yellow wind warning for Down and Antrim from this evening. Further counties may be increased to Orange level in the coming hours so please keep in touch with the latest forecasts and warnings.
Status yellow rainfall warnings are in effect for the entire country. The UK Met Office have also issued status yellow rainfall warnings for Northern Ireland.
Potential impacts especially within the orange warning areas are: Structural damage, falling trees, travel disruption, power outages, localised flooding, wave overtopping.
*Update at 5pm on Friday: A Status Red – Marine Storm warning has been issued from Carnsore Point to Dungarvan to Mizen Head as southeast winds, veering southwesterly increasing to storm force 10, and occasionally violent storm force 11 for a time on Irish coastal waters.
An unseasonably strong jet streak (a more intense area of winds embedded in the jet stream) is currently helping to rapidly intensify Storm Betty to the south of Ireland. Storm Betty will track up across the country today (Friday 18th) and overnight before weakening and clearing away to the north on Saturday morning (19th).
As the very strong winds are unseasonable and trees are in full leaf, very difficult travelling conditions are expected. Whether in the yellow or orange warning areas, temporary structures should be secured adequately. The strong winds will also provide a danger to high sided vehicles.
As Storm Betty is rapidly developing, further warnings may be issued in the coming hours and close monitoring of the situation is advised.
An unseasonably wet and windy start to the August Bank Holiday weekend
Wet and windy weather will develop on Friday night and early on Saturday as a low pressure system sweeps across Ireland.
After a dry start on Friday, outbreaks of heavy rain will spread across the country later in the day and overnight with strong and gusty northwesterly winds developing, alongside gales on southern and western coasts.
Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy commented that “A low pressure system will approach the country on Friday and that will drive outbreaks of rain eastwards across us Friday evening and night. That rain will turn heavy in places overnight and on Saturday morning, which could lead to spot flooding. The low pressure system will also bring strong and gusty northwest winds, especially in the southwest and south.”
There is still uncertainty around the track of this low and the exact areas that will see the strongest winds and heaviest rain.
Aoife explained “Despite the uncertainty in the low’s exact trajectory, we do know that it will be unseasonably wet and windy. The combination of those strong winds and heavy rain could lead to some difficult travelling conditions and impact any outdoor events on Friday night and Saturday morning, particularly anyone attending festivals and sleeping in tents or temporary structures. Due to trees being in full leaf and the ground being waterlogged from record rainfall during the month of July, there is a risk of some fallen trees in those areas with the strongest winds.”
The low pressure system will gradually move into the Irish Sea on Saturday, with scattered showers following from the northwest.
“That low will clear to the east on Saturday afternoon, and a mix of sunshine and showers will follow for later Saturday and Sunday. It’ll be a brighter day on Sunday with more in the way of dry spells.” continued Aoife.
Sunday is looking like the best day of the weekend – another low pressure system will cross the country on Monday, bringing further rainfall.
Aoife says “With the unseasonable weather expected over the weekend, especially with more people on the move for the bank holiday, we ask people to keep an eye on the forecast and any possible warnings for their area at www.met.ie and on the Met Éireann app.”
Contrasting weather across Europe – Tuesday 18 July 2023
Extreme and dangerous heat has been impacting many parts of the northern hemisphere, including Mediterranean countries where air temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees Celsius above average. The heatwave is set to continue this week with record breaking temperatures forecast. In contrast, Ireland is experiencing unsettled weather with temperatures on the cool side, near or below the July average.
Why is there such a difference? Met Éireann meteorologist Linda Hughes explains “The main contributing factor is the position of the jet stream relative to Ireland. The jet stream is a band of very strong winds located around 9 or 10km above the surface of the earth which can meander to the north or south of Ireland. At the moment the jet stream is positioned to the south (Fig.1), which is placing Ireland in a cool airmass and a mainly west to northwest airflow (Fig.2)”.
Fig1: Jet stream at 12Z 18th July 2023 (ECMWF)
Fig 2: Wet-bulb potential temperature at 12Z 18th July 2023 (ECMWF)
A blocking area of high pressure is affecting southern Europe, which is inhibiting cloud formation and allowing heat to build day on day. A marine heatwave is occurring in the Mediterranean Sea with sea surface temperatures in the mid to high twenties (Fig.3). Nighttime temperatures are also remaining very high. Red high temperature warnings have been issued in some Mediterranean countries. For any holidaymakers heading in that direction check www.meteoalarm.org for all active warnings.
Fig 3: Sea surface temperatures (degrees Celsius)
Linda Hughes continues, “In contrast, Ireland is currently under the influence of Atlantic low pressure systems, bringing changeable weather with spells of heavy rain at times. Looking at the extended range forecast, there is no clear signal for any long-settled periods”.
Unseasonable weather for the weekend - Updated Friday 14 July 2023
A spell of unseasonably wet and windy weather this weekend as an active low pressure system moves across the country.
Met Éireann forecaster Liz Coleman explains “ We’ve seen notable accumulations of rain over the south and southwest this morning (Friday). The band of persistent rain is now moving over the midlands and north of the country, bringing the possibility of localised flooding. Visibility is particularly poor in these conditions so do take care if you are travelling on the roads. It will be windy too for a time this afternoon, with fresh to strong easterly winds, leading to choppy conditions at sea particularly on eastern coasts. Isolated showers will follow into the south through the afternoon with some heavy and possibly thundery bursts and winds veering southwesterly. Yellow rainfall warnings are still in effect across the country.
Tomorrow, Saturday we can expect a further band of rain or showers as the low pressure tracks eastwards, introducing fresh to strong and gusty north to northwest winds. It will be particularly windy along exposed coasts in the west and northwest, with gales likely at sea.
Liz Coleman continues “We don’t want people to be caught off guard, especially with summer holidays in full swing. We ask people to keep up to date with the forecast for their area via www.met.ie and on the Met Éireann app. For further advice on how to plan accordingly check BeSummerReady.”
The winds will moderate westerly on Sunday with a mix of sunny spells and scattered showers and early indications are for our weather to remain unsettled into next week.
Fine spell continuing for the first week of June - issued Monday 29th May 2023
By Meteorologists Rebecca Cantwell and Evelyn Cusack.
The current fine spell is set to continue over the June Bank Holiday Weekend and right through the first week in June. The Azores anticyclone (high pressure system) is shifted from its normal position around the Azores (and hence its name) up to the north of Ireland producing an easterly airflow over Ireland. This is called a blocking high pressure system as it literally blocks out the rainbelts in the Atlantic and diverts away the Jet stream and low pressure systems to the north and to the south and in fact over the Azores, the Azores high has been replaced this week by a low pressure system and rain. Over southern Europe daytime heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Portugal over to Greece, while we enjoy fine, dry weather. See the Atlantic chart below showing the Azores high shifted to the north of Ireland and the precipitation forecast over Mediterranean countries.
So lovely, fine, sunny weather in store for Bloom and for all the myriad of events around the country for the June Weekend but also for the start of the Leaving Cert and best wishes to all the students from Met Éireann.
Sea Surface Temperature Sat 03 June 2023 13:00
Sea temperatures are nearly 16°C off Kerry but only 12°C in the Northeast so an east to northeast airflow makes it feel fresh anywhere along the north and east coast with air temperatures here typically of 15 to 18°C. But apart from these coastal areas and mountains, it will be warm with maximum values reaching 21 to 24°C countrywide and as high as 25 degrees in in parts of the west. Check Sea surface temperatures and mountains forecasts for your area.
Safety on the Water: Please take great care if out on or near water. Avoid swimming in potentially treacherous locations like flooded quarries. Swim at designated, lifeguarded waterways and beaches, between the flags, where possible. Stay within your depth. Always wear a personal flotation device/lifejacket when boating or angling and ensure that it has correctly fitting straps. Contact the Coastguard if you see somebody in trouble or think they are in trouble on the water or along the coast Dial 112/999. For more information https://watersafety.ie/open-water-swimming/.
Visit EPA Beaches.ie to view bathing water quality and get the Met Éireann weather forecast for over 200 beaches around Ireland.
UV: The UV index is 7. Seek shade during peak sunshine hours of 12-3pm, this is when UV is at its highest and people are at greatest risk of sunstroke and sunburn. Cover up with a hat and long sleeved T-shirt. Skin cancer is the most common type of cancer in Ireland and to help prevent it don’t burn. Remain hydrated. Carry plenty of water on journeys in case of delays due to increased numbers visiting coastal and rural areas.
Fire: There is a Fire Danger Notice – Condition Orange in operation until the 6th June (likely to be extended). Ground conditions are quite dry so please do not ignite naked flames in any woodland or grassland areas. Never barbecue in parks, wildland areas or any site in close proximity to vegetation, trees etc. Most wildfires in Ireland are a result of human activities and are therefore avoidable.
Please do enjoy the fine weather but stay safe. Met Éireann now has a daily audio weather forecast available as a podcast, recorded by our weather forecasters. Search Weather Forecast from Met Éireann on your podcast player – it’s available now on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher and more. Or listen on Audioboom if the player is not available. For your local 10-day forecast www.met.ie or App.
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Mixed weather for the Easter weekend - April 2023
5th April 2023
The weather for this Easter weekend will be mixed with an Atlantic airflow feeding in some rain at times.
Good Friday will be fine but followed by cloudier weather and some rain over the weekend. It’ll turn breezier too on Easter Sunday, and there’ll be a mix of showers and sunny spells for Easter Monday. Overall, the east of the country will have the driest conditions. Temperatures will be just around normal for the time of year with Friday feeling quite mild in the sunshine but overall feeling on the cool side. Gardeners be warned that there may be some air frost Thursday night/early Friday morning.
“Good Friday will the best day countrywide this Easter. It will be dry and bright for most of the country, with just the chance of light isolated showers. Temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees in a mostly light southerly breeze” says forecaster Linda Hughes.
“A lot of dry weather too, in the east over the Easter weekend, however it will be overall quite cloudy with scattered outbreaks of rain and some heavy rain moving in at times from the Atlantic” continues Linda. “Southerly winds will be mostly light on Saturday, but will freshen during Easter Sunday will be a fresh, blustery day’.
Easter Monday will be a bright, breezy day with sunny spells and passing showers.
Daytime temperatures for the Easter weekend will range around 10 to 14 degrees, with Saturday looking to be the coolest day. Night time temperatures typically 5 to 8 degrees
This mixed Atlantic regime is set to continue through next week and next weekend also as you can see from the airflow prediction guidance from ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts)..
If you’re out and about this weekend, hiking, biking or just a stroll on the beach, make sure you keep up to date with your localised forecast using the Met Eireann App and look for our new ‘feels like’ temperatures, daily podcasts and mountains forecast.
Updated hourly forecast on the Met Éireann app
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Cold spell commencing 6th of March 2023
Updated 12.45pm Tuesday 7th March 2023
The uncertainties surrounding the forecast for Thursday the 9th of March are keenly illustrated on the chart below. The image demonstrates the probability of precipitation falling as either drizzle, rain, sleet or snow based on a forecast from Met Éireann’s high-resolution ensemble prediction system, IREPS. The darker the colour, the more certain the forecast is for that precipitation type to fall.
Probability of precipitation falling as either drizzle, rain, sleet or snow at 3pm on Thursday the 9th of March from a model forecast on Tuesday the 7th of March.
The snapshot shown is the forecast for 3pm on Thursday the 9th of March, as of the morning of the 7th of March. Focusing on the “Rain”, “Sleet” and “Snow” panels, the transformation of the precipitation as it moves northwards across the country is evident, with the precipitation almost certain to fall as rain in the somewhat milder air to the south, becoming sleet through north Munster and into the midlands and a very high likelihood of snow in north Leinster and Ulster.
According to Dr. Alan Hally, Forecasting Services Manager at Met Éireann, “Our high-resolution ensemble prediction system is specifically designed to represent the uncertainties related to these types of events. In Ireland, the occurrence of snow is almost always a marginal event, and our forecasters rely heavily on ensemble prediction systems in order to determine the most likely outcome and to decide on appropriate and timely warnings”.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland, go to http://www.met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page.
For information on winter weather preparation, please consult www.winterready.ie.
Issued at 6pm Monday 6th March 2023
Much colder this week as a northerly airflow moves over the country introducing sharp to severe frosts at night and icy patches with some snow in the forecast.
A cold front sinks southward across Ireland on Monday evening (March 6th) introducing a much colder polar maritime airmass. Met Éireann has issued a Yellow Ice warning for tonight (Monday 6th of March) as temperatures drop to freezing countrywide.
According to Forecaster Gerry Murphy “For Monday night temperatures will fall to between -4 to 0 degrees leading to a widespread sharp frost and some icy stretches, especially over the northern half of the country. Further south, outbreaks of rain will turn to sleet or snow for a time overnight in Munster leading to poor visibility and hazardous driving conditions. A cold bright day on Tuesday will be followed by a very cold night on Tuesday night with widespread frost and some icy stretches. Outbreaks of sleet or snow may develop late in the night in Cork and Kerry”.
Airmass for Tuesday 7th March – Thursday the 9th of Marth showing a cold (blue) airmass extending southwards over Ireland.
There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast from midweek onwards, with some model runs bringing the boundary between the cold polar airmass and the milder tropical airmass northwards over the country, which could bring a spell of snow for a time ahead of the milder air. The extent of this event and its impacts will become more evident by midweek, at which time further warnings will be issued if necessary.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
For information on winter weather preparation, please consult www.winterready.ie
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